A few days ago BloggingStock's own Jon C. Ogg reported that Jim Cramer opened his mouth and called ethanol a "colossal joke that everyone is in on."
Well, if that statement is true, then it's a well-read joke being enjoyed by America, China, Spain and Canada ... among others. This interesting report at SeekingAlpha is from Sunopta (NASDAQ (GS):STKL) (Toronto:SOY) and it might enlighten some naysayers as to just how viable ethanol really is.The fact is that for right now ethanol stocks are at ground level and in my opinion that's why Cramer doesn't like them. I'm thinking that he sees the potential deflating effect that ethanol stocks will have on the oil-supported mutual funds and he's just not willing to do the work it will take to adjust the thinking of some important fund managers. Pooh on him.
Once again, here's the truth of the matter as I see it: This past summer, George Bush, ExxonMobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) and all the other oil boys ran a gambit on us. Without any viable reason that I could ascertain, they ratcheted up the price of crude oil until gasoline peaked at about $3.25 per gallon, national average. But what happened I believe, was not what they expected. They found the ceiling for crude oil prices and they bounced off of it hard. Without the expectation that it would happen, the oil producers proved that in the modern age, at $73 a barrel crude oil loses its competitive edge. Money moved so fast from petroleum into alternate fuels that the prices at the pump dropped in one tenth the time it took to get up to where they peaked, but the damage was already done. We learned their secret, learned quickly of the alternatives and even damaged petroleum's market share. That's right folks, oil shares the fuel market now. ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) needs to know it's not 1970 any more.
Why won't OPEC cut production? Because it can't . They may be greedy but they're not stupid. They know their ceiling as well as we do. They're not going to push it. Chevron Corp. (NYSE:CVX) knows that we will have no problems plugging our automobiles into the wall to juice them up with electricity produced from non-petroleum sources. If it keeps on jacking up its prices, we'll just find other fuels. It's that simple my friends. Gee, did someone forget that Americans still know how to innovate and adapt? This is one of the subtle reasons that General Electric (NYSE:GE) shares have been languishing so bad. GE embraces the future and big oil is loosing its grip on that. This puts GE in somewhat direct opposition against the major fund managers. Get a grip fundies, the days of oil are softening.
As for Cramer and the others who claim that crude oil will hit $100 a barrel... I say let it. You'll have a whole bunch more oil stocks hanging around your portfolios which you can then play with by yourselves. You'd have a tough time selling me oil stocks right now, even at a 50% discount. As a matter of fact. I'd be tempted to throw those stock certificates into the high efficiency wood furnace that I plan to replace my expensive oil burner with.
Will someone please tell Jim Cramer, that ain't no joke.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
1-29-2007 @ 6:57PM
Jack Schneider said...
Hear the part I don't understand why does the middle class [working stiffs like me] knows when it is getting the shaft but my representaives in congress can't see it. Here in Tucson the price of fuel went from about 3 dollars on Labor day to $2.07 on election day, and it went up from there. Here in Tucson we call that a crocked crap game. Sad thing is the oil companies don't hide it when they 400 million retiremint package to one person maybe he was the Godfather.
1-30-2007 @ 8:17AM
Jon said...
OMG you are a f*cking moron
1-30-2007 @ 8:39AM
dave said...
The notion that the fabled American entrepeneur will unleash her magic when oil hits $75 has already been disproved. In constant dollars, we've been here before, twice, and last time I checked solar panels were still brutally expensive and my car is not even a clean diesel, much less electric. In some ways, the bigger fear is that at $50 oil, all semblance of even trying to conserve or innovate will go away...until "Who Killed The Electric Car" is part of Business school curriculums, we're going nowhere...
1-30-2007 @ 1:20PM
Gary E. Sattler said...
Perhaps I am a moron Jon. From what I hear they called Henry Ford a moron when he claimed he would make the automobile affordable for all Americans so I guess I'm in good company. Need I remind you that no one ever believed that Detroit's big three could ever be displaced. Read the headlines lately? Yeah, there's a lot of us morons out here. Get Ford to change their socio/political affiliations and just watch what happens to their stock.
Just you keep betting on oil. I'm not. It's the hated necessity. Buy some corn options. Maybe you'll get richer.
Thanks for the intelligent dialog. Moron is as moron does...Bud.
1-30-2007 @ 11:06PM
Bruce said...
Ethonal is one of the biggest hoaxes to be crammed down the taxpayer's throat. Ethonal requires a huge taxpayer subsidy to be competitive. Forcing ethonal on us is driving up the price of corn which, in turn, drives up the cost of beef, corn oil, corn syrup, etc. You will pay for it through your tax dollar, at the pump, and at the grocery store. It is cleaner burning fuel, hugely inefficient to produce from corn, but politically correct. The taxpayer would be better off if the money was spent to develop a decent mass transit system. The big corn producers in the midwest will be laughing all the way to the bank. PS: Ethonal can be much more efficiently produced using sugar cane. The economics work in Venezuela, but not the U.S.
1-30-2007 @ 11:07PM
fred said...
let us ANNEX MEXICO THEY HAVE LOTSA OIL AND THEN THEY CAN ALL PAY SOCIAL SECURITY AND RECEIVE CHECKS THAT DO NOT MAKE ENDS MEET THEIR GOVT WOULD SURLEY STOP THE ILLEGALS FAST
1-30-2007 @ 11:11PM
R. Noonan said...
The argument is riddled with errors and misconceptions. I could go into a lot of detail, but instead I'll point out a few of the glaring items. First of all, GWB and the oil companies do NOT get to set the price of crude on the open market (even OPEC, which openly admits to being a cartel, can't agree on production and targets). Second, ethanol is not a particularly good substitute for petroleum products in this country. Those concerned about the environment are already telling us that the increased use of fertilizers and additional lands being taken to grow corn are creating devastation that might surpass the current concerns about oil exploration. Also, you cannot transport ethanol in traditional pipelines. As for GE, while they may benefit from ethanol, they also just announced an acquisition that suggests they are every bit as interested in oil exploration. I always enjoy a good conspiracy theory - but only as a means to a good laugh when I am drinking with friends.
1-30-2007 @ 11:12PM
mtambo said...
BIG OIL/George Bush ... how about Big Foot or UFO's. The President or Big Oil do not set the world market price for crude, or gasoline for that matter. The price of gas at the pump is directly tied to the cost of raw materials and demand. The oil producing courtries/cartels try to set the PPB. The price of gas went up dramatically as a result increased global demand (China) and a shortage of refining capacity due to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita damaging refineries and production wells in the Gulf of Mexico. The US refineries usually operate near capacity and disruption on this scale will naturally cause prices to spike.
Ethanol from corn kernals IS a Losing proposition. If you were looking for a really poor choice to supply your raw material for ethanol production, corn would be it. Producing 80,000 BTU's of energy from ethanol requires 36,000 BTU's of natural gas in the various stages of heating required. That does not count the Diesel fuel needed to run the harvesters, tractors or trucking needed to produce the corn. or the electricity to power the production and distribution systems. It may very well be a zero sum gain to produce ethanol from corn.
If you need someone to be the focus of your conspiricy mindset, take a look at ADM. They are the driving force on ethanol from corn, and they lobby Congress for tax breaks and mandates not the President.
1-30-2007 @ 11:12PM
bob said...
Bruce and Mr. Noonan are correct. Ethanol from corn is a political hoax....it takes a 1 unit of petroleum fuel to produce only between 1.3-1.6 times that amount of ethanol energy. Contrast this with a ratio of about 1:12 for gasoline. Talk about inefficiency!
1-31-2007 @ 10:29AM
Bob Cooper said...
Yes, you are definitely a moron of the highest magnitude.
I would love to be energy independent, but I think the American public as well as politicians lack the will to experience the pain it will require.
There was so much complaining going on when gasoline prices reached their peak. Ethanol was the rage. As oil production inceased, inventories rose, the outrage died down. You are a moron for hitching your wagon to ethanol as others have so well stated.
I'm not an expert on the subject, but it seems liquifying coal might be the answer. Regardless what actions we take nationally, it will be a few years to wean ourselves from oil and their might be some pain at the pump in the interim.
It is terrible that oil companies making money from oil. That should never happen in your world.
4-14-2007 @ 4:29AM
jason mc said...
blablabla...better invest in ethanol stocks now-long term. we will all depend on it. trust