Macau -- an 11-square-mile territory on the southern coast of the People's Republic of China -- is a "gaming hotbed," notes Beth Gaston Moon, an analyst with Schaeffer's Investment Research. Indeed, Macau saw 2006 gambling revenue up 22% to $6.95 billion. For the first time on record, its gaming revenue exceeded that of Las Vegas.
As the technical analyst -- known for her contrarian investment strategy -- points out, "These figures affirm Macau's status as a region to be reckoned with in the world of blackjack and baccarat." Here, she looks at the investment opportunities in the region:
Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS) was the first stateside company to begin operations in Macau. Moon explains, "In 2004, the company built the Sands Macau, the largest casino in the world (in terms of the number of table games)."
Next in line was Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ: WYNN), which she notes built the Wynn Macau in 2006. A third player, whose casino is slated for construction over the next year is the MGM Grand (NYSE: MGM).
Regarding these companies' stocks, Moon notes, "MGM shares have been in rally mode since late August, surging more than 110% along the support of their 10-week moving average. The stock benefits from short-term support as well and is currently retesting its 10-day trendline as it counts its chips near all-time-high territory.
"As contrarians," she explains, "we like to see signs of skepticism on an uptrending security as a sign that not everyone has bought into the underlying instrument's rally. On MGM, options players are flashing their bearish teeth."
Indeed, based on the stock's put/call open interest ratio, she sees a near-term extreme in pessimism among the speculative crowd. In addition, she notes that over 6% of MGM's float has been sold short. For those comfortable with options, she says, "A nice short-term play, currently worth about $4 in intrinsic value, is the March 65 call."
As for Las Vegas Sands, she says, "The stock has been on a tear ever since the stock debuted for public trading in late 2004. The stock has stair-stepped along its 10-week and 20-week moving averages since the final quarter of 2005."
Technically, she says, the stock's path of least resistance is higher. She explains, "Analysts are keeping their cards close to the chest on LVS, as seven of the 10 brokerages following this hot stock rate it a 'hold.' An upgrade or two could attract positive buying momentum to the shares, fueling their rally."
She adds, "The speculative crowd is notably skittish as well; for every 100 short-term call positions open, there are 165 open short-term puts." For more sophisticated options buyers she offers, "Conservative traders could consider the in-the-money June 100 call a nice play. Selling a February 95 put could also be a good strategy."
As for WYNN, which she calls the "master of luxury and excess," she notes that the stock has been a "dream" to its shareholders during the past few months. She notes, "It has rallied to a new all-time high, using its 10-week moving average to steady its footing during its latest burst of strength."
Meanwhile, she explains, "Short sellers have emerged in droves, leaving more than 15.5% of the equity's available float for public trading devoted to the short side. If the equity continues to move forward, these bearish players could scatter toward the exits, providing some additional buying momentum."
Analysts are skeptical as well, she observes, noting that Wall Street has given the stock five "holds" and two "strong sells" along with three "strong buy" ratings. She concludes, "With the stock's uptrend showing no signs of a slowdown, an upgrade or two could be in the offing. An intermediate-term, in-the-money call such as the June or September 105 contract makes a good amount of sense."
As a caveat to this trio of ideas, she notes that MGM, LVS, and WYNN will be reporting earnings reports, tentatively scheduled for February 14, February 14, and February 22. She cautions, "Volatility shifts ahead of and immediately following these earnings reports could inflate option prices or create some dramatic price movements."
Steven Halpern is the editor of TheStockAdviors.com, a free daily website that features the latest market commentary and stock ideas from the financial newsletter community.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
3-14-2007 @ 8:14PM
HK Blogger said...
A bit surprised that Melco PBL is not mentioned. There will be far greater value in it moving forward than WYNN or LVS which have already had a strong run up in their prices. MPEL will be opening its fist of 3 major revenue generating casinos in Macau this April, so expect earnings to hike.
The stock on my conservative calculations presents a net asset value of over USD6 billion on its gaming licence and land value alone. That represents a NAV per share of around HKD39 (the stock is dual listed on NASDAQ code:MPEL and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange code: 200)and on forward earnings of around HKD$8 per share (current price would indicate a P/E of just over 2) once all casinos are operating, the stock is cheap, very cheap!