Best Buy seeing picked-up sales of Windows Vista

Although Microsoft Corp.'s (NASDAQ:MSFT) Windows Vista product has not been "on shelves" long enough to really get a feel for how the new computer operating system is going to fare over the long term, retail sales at Best Buy Co. Inc. (NYSE:BBY) are doing well, according to Citigroup retail analyst Bill Sims.

Sims said that "Best Buy is likely seeing better than expected sales of Microsoft Windows Vista-based PCs since their introduction on January 31." The key word here is, of course, "likely," which alludes to a probability that makes some accept a certain comfort level. But what about the normal sales cycle of PCs? Now that there are thousands (or millions) of PCs sitting on store shelves with Windows Vista already loaded, the normal seasonality in PC sales will, of course, drive sales of Windows Vista licenses.

There are also quite a few machines on store shelves that have the older Windows XP operating system on them -- so Best Buy is getting some extra cash from the PC makers to help sell through these machines, according to Sims. Once those are sold, then all new PCs (well, generally) will have the Windows Vista operating system pre-loaded -- and then the sales will start marching regardless.

When considering Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer's comments yesterday on the revenue from Vista sales being initially over-forecast (liveblogged here), 2007 sales of Vista will probably just be a ramp for a sales increase in the future. The thing is -- investors want more immediate sales after five years in development.

[Disclosure: I own MSFT shares as of 2-16-07]