I've always been amazed at how much grief activist investors get. Management teams often attack them as being interested in breaking up the company for a short-term profit at the expense of longer-term shareholders. But the thing is, an activist investors interests are almost always better aligned with those of investors than the management. The break-up or sale of the company (or whatever change the activist is pushing for) may hurt the wallet of the entrenched managers. He may have a vested interest in acting in ways that are not in the best interest of shareholders. But as an investor, the activist fund's interests are essentially exactly the same as the shareholders: they want a higher stock-price.
In Sunday's New York Times, investment newsletter guru Mark Hulbert wrote about a study conducted several academics called "Hedge Fund Activism, Corporate Governance, and Firm Performance." The results of the study are not surprising, to me anyway. According to study, stocks where activists are involved outperform the market by 7% on average over the 2 weeks leading up and the 2 weeks after the 13-D filing indicating ownership of greater than 5%. Furthermore, Hulbert writes that "In the year after that initial month of market-beating performance, the average target company's stock kept pace with the overall market. And over the subsequent two years, the professors also found, the operating performance of the target companies improved markedly."
So what is it managers are really running scared about?Hulbert discusses the possibilities of beating the market by buying shares in companies soon after an activist fund files a 13-D or indicates plans to seek changes in the company. But I strongly believe that is possible for investors to actually predict which companies will be targeted by shareholder activists. I talked a bit about that in this piece about Blair a few weeks ago. Generally, any company whose stock is badly undervalued has a good chance of garnering attention. In particular, companies that look like they could be taken private at a substantial premium to the current market cap may see buying by activists who will seek to pressure for that very thing.
Here is a checklist of characteristics that may make a stock attractive to activist hedge funds:
-Trading a discount to the company's tangible book value.
-Earning a low Return on Equity and/or Return on Invested Capital. Low returns on these metrics indicate that the company may not be well-managed. For instance, if a company is earning a 3% return on equity, they would be better of liquidating and investing in bonds.
-A strong brand-name combined with low returns. Topps (TOPP) is an example of this, and hedge funds have taken note and pushed for changes in the operations of the business.










