Dow Jones & Company Inc.'s (NYSE: DJ) Wall Street Journal (A.K.A, The Towel) occupies a unique spot in the media firmament. As I pointed out earlier in the year, it changed its footprint and now looks to me like a Holiday Inn bath towel. Towel Talk offers a perspective on its news and views.
Last Saturday's Towel hit the declining $1.3 trillion subprime mortgage market hard -- with two articles and the lead editorial. Since the stock market won't be open until Tuesday -- the Towel's timing will either give investors a long time to stew about subprime's woes or to forget them as they ski in Aspen or warm themselves in the Turks and Caicos. But does the Towel's wide coverage also signal the end of the trend?
The best of the three articles was The Subprime Market's Rough Road [subscription required for all Towel links] since it included statistics which paint a compelling picture of a widening subprime collapse, including the following:
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Subprime loans have grown to 12.75% of the $10.2 trillion mortgage market in 2006, up from 8.5% in 2001
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47% of subprime loans are "creative" -- up from 2% in 2000 -- featuring "piggyback" loans which require no down payment and "no-doc" loans that let borrowers state their incomes without supporting documentation. While this creativity works fine when housing prices rise -- if a borrower defaults, the lender can profit by selling the property -- it does not work when housing prices are going down.
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80% of subprime mortgages are exploding ARMs (adjustable-rate mortgages) with low fixed-interest payments in their first few years which later adjust to higher interest payments. When the ARM adjusts upward, some borrowers can't afford to pay. The resulting foreclosures lead the mortgage company to sell the house to get back some of the loan principal. The sudden increase in the supply of houses on the market puts further downward pressure on prices.
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Nearly 1.2 million foreclosure filings were reported in 2006, up 42% from 2005, representing one in 92 U.S. households. This trend will worsen if interest rates rise.
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Borrowers have never been more leveraged. Loan-to-value ratios, the loan amount expressed as a percent of the property value, have grown to 86.5% last year from 78% in 2000. With all the new supply on the market, these loan-to-value ratios are likely to rise as the values decline. This will mean steeper loan writeoffs for mortgage lenders which will deplete their capital.
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At least 20 subprime lenders have filed for bankruptcy or have been sold. As mortgage-backed securities buyers exercise their rights to force mortgage originators to buy back the bad loans, the loan originators will likely be unable to come up with the buyback cash -- leading more of them to file for bankruptcy.
Sharp Drop in Housing Starts Adds To Fear of Wider Economic Impact included some other important factoids:
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In November, payments were late -- 60+ days overdue -- on subprime loans packaged into mortgage securities on 12.9% of the loans, up from 8.1% in 2005.
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At one house builder, sales-cancellation rates in Phoenix soared 70% in certain months in 2006, and averaged 50% for the whole year.
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170,000 housing-related jobs have been cut since April 2006
The Towel's editorial, How Expansions Die, surprised me a bit because it mostly resisted The Towel's editorial bias toward blaming problems on the Al Qaeda-loving, tax-raising Democrat party. However, it could not resist warning that Congressional investigations into predatory lending would lead to tougher lending standards and a further credit crunch.
Overall I like the Towel's coverage of the subprime mortgage industry and hope it begins to investigate further the subprime value network -- the organizations that lend to, insure, credit rate, regulate, securitize, trade, and invest in subprime mortgages and the mortgage backed securities into which those loans are packaged. Given the growing systemic risk of this evolving problem, a thorough analysis of these links in subprime's value chain is critical to weighing its ultimate economic impact.
I would really like to know more about the experience of those who took on subprime mortgages. Why did they do it? What were they thinking about the risks? How did things work out? If you've invested in subprime stocks or are paying back a subprime mortgage, what are your thoughts?
To me it looks like the declining trend is far from ending.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates, a management consulting and venture capital firm, He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in Dow Jones.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
2-20-2007 @ 12:20PM
Jeff said...
Mr Cohen,
I'm glad someone in this country is addressing our 'Empire of Debt problem'! There is a good book that goes by the aforementioned name written by Bill Bonner & Addison Wiggen that sums up what our 'Empire' has gotten itself into, huge deficits & boatloads of personal debt! I myself am loading up on the one standard of money that will never lose or be suckered by the pundits.....GOLD & Silver! This country is in for a very long haul before we can call ourselves a responsible nation once again:)
2-20-2007 @ 10:18PM
John Feldman said...
While Mr. Cohan is correct in what he and the WSJ have written, and I agree with the need for some further examination of the subprime network, one other point must also be considered: To what extent did the subprime mortgage market cause housing prices to rise, contribute to the boom in costs, price people out of the market, and make people like me pay more for my home than I otherwise might have had not subprime mortgages artificially increased demand for houses?
2-28-2007 @ 3:40PM
Paul Doetsch said...
Mr Cohan
Here in Az the subprime loans are just about to hit the area very hard. Job lay offs inflated by housing sales for unqualified buyers. Foreclosures have been running 300--490 per week. As the ARMS rates increase so will the foreclosures. I will mention the valuations of these properties both new and resale by lenders have done the State a great disservice.