I'm firing up the grill for some bulls

Posted Feb 23rd 2007 5:03PM by Gary Sattler
Filed under: Forecasts, Rumors, Columns

I'm getting ready for the first cookout of the season but I won't be cooking outdoors yet because it's too cold. No, I'm preparing for a different kind of roasted treat. I'm readying myself for the roasting of the bulls. It's not that I'm going to particularly enjoy watching fast money get cooked, it's just that I see things lining up in a manner which makes my prediction of a moderate market correction quite easy for me to stand by. I'll take no pride or satisfaction in anyones losses but a thank you note would be nice if I save someone's ass-ets.

A rise in the price of gold is one of my hot button indicators. I see the price has climbed a little. This signals to me that smart money is seeking solid ground. I like precious metals as indicators but as investments they're too dangerous for my blood. I suggest plays on those things only for the real die-hard risk takers.

I see short interest taking large swings, in my opinion more than usual, and as the short positions move it seems that they become more deeply involved. I have no research for you regarding actual short interest numbers. Perhaps someone will attach the actual break down after this article is posted. Suffice it to say that my short interest indication is based solely on my own cursory view.

There's an awful lot of equity fund money being held back right now. It is as if the fund managers are waiting for something to do. The money that is moving seems to be moving in very big chunks and I'm noticing that there seems to be some leaning started toward some of the "old school" stocks. The sudden rash of corporate debt refinancing also signals to me that the big money is getting ready to "hunker down." Once again, this is based on my own cursory view. I'm sorry but I work a 50-hour week away from home, my hours for hard core analysis are simply very few.

I expect that the profit taking has started and that is why the market has drooped. Yes, we're still at the top of the hill that we climbed but by percentages do you notice the stagnation of growth? A few individual stocks take nice hikes on very limited news. That's because larger floats of capital are attempting to take advantage of fewer upward moves.

So, you may say that I'm goofy or ill-informed or full of it, say what you choose but at the end of the day every one of us knows that the markets are cyclical and that, my friends, is old news.

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