EBay: Well-thought out responses welcome

My statement about having 30 accounts was not hyperbolic. At best count I have over 20 ID's that I registered on the US site (probably some that I forgot about) and I know I've registered at least several on other ebay sites outside of the US to take advantage of listing sales.

Skype is still in its infancy, I will give you that, however lifespan of internet technologies is much shorter than human lifespan. Remember Lycos, Alta Vista, Pets.com...etc.? If eBay doesn't act quick, Skype will be replaced with another buzz product and they will never monetize it enough to even recoup their initial investment. The inventors of Skype recently developed Joost, which is sort of like Skype infused with steroids and video according to reports. They recently signed a deal with Viacom to host programs on the new service. I think eBay had better act fast, or even better think ahead to the next big idea rather than trying to buy ideas.

I don't think Skype has made the representation that they have 171 million unique users. Most Skype users I know have not collected a roster of 20 or 30 Skype names. Let's face it. If you're like most people, with that many names, you might resort to counting them on both your fingers and toes. For most people that would spell trouble.

I have found that most Skypers have one, maybe two Skype names. If there were two Skype Names, most often, the second name got added because at one time, the person forgot their password, and it was more expedient to create a new Skype Name.

Regarding the estimate of the number of unique Skype users, the estimate may be off in two different ways, each tugging in the opposite direction. First, not all of the revenue earned in Q4 2006 would be for subscribing to the paid service that you are pegging at the $15 or $30 amount. The $15 SkypeOut fee ($30 after Jan. 31st) applies to Q1 2007, not revenue counted for 2006. I don't know about you, but I didn't fork over my $15 for SkypeOut until January. I seriously doubt people were paying monies for future service back in December for the service, as the pricing wasn't announced till the tail end of the year. Arithmetically, it doesn't make sense to try to correlate the $65 million 4th quarter revenues with $15 or $30 annual price per SkypeOut account. See what revenue is generated in the first quarter of 2007. That will be a more reliable indicator.

Don't forget that Skype-to-Skype calls are free and active users on Skype do not necessarily need to be shelling out money for thier Skype calls. Aside from SkypeOut and SkypeIn, there are other services provided by Skype, which are free, such as Skypecasts, conferece calling, video over Skype and the wealth of new plugins that came with Skype 3.0. So in any case, the number of active Skype users is larger than those opting for SkypeOut.

Loren Abdulezer
Co-Author, Skype For Dummies
http://www.Skype4Dummies.com

While I certainly do not always agree with Firemeg , I think reality checks on the stats are sorely needed. I think the next 6 months will really tell how successful eBay's strategy is. I think the last quarter's results bought management more time to get things fixed at eBay.

I am an eBay supporter and believe there is a culture war within the company at the current time. I believe the old guard of the eBay that was has recently been beaten back and the new corporate eBay has taken over. Oddly enough this has happened as the stock has dropped from the 40s to where it is now. I think they need to refocus on what brought them here and I see signs this is starting to happen.

I think Skype has not performed as expected. While they were taking on Skype the cable companies tossed out a 25 buck a month unlimited LD VOIP calling plan that doesnt need headsets or plug ins that just works over your house phone lines. This took a chunk out of their US market. Skype succeeds internationally due to insane phone call prices in other countries which will eventually even out with the rest of the world. There is still plenty of oppty with Skype more in click to call and enterprise use in my opinion.

I think eBays main mistake is alienating their own users. In order to bring their new technologies forward they need and active and energized user base. They should keep people on the site. They can expand into banking (as released today) and have billions in paypal accounts. They should have stock plan to make their sellers and users part of the success plan.

They have too much potential to wither away. A positive is the sneaking out of the China deal and some new management changes and ideas.

As to the Google threat , I just dont see it. Not to paypal and not in anything really.

Marty

http://Onceuponabid.com (ebay store)
http://www.worldofebay.blogspot.com (ebay blog)

At minimum I think most regular ebay users have 3 IDs... A selling ID, a buying ID and a posting ID. Many have even more selling IDs so they can categorize their sales... especially if one ID is for the Mature Audience category. Many regular posters have more than one ID depending how Sybil-esque they are. It all adds up and if you have been on eBay since the beginning, as I have, as somebody mentioned I could have IDs that I have even forgotten about but that eBay still uses in their figures.... eBay's stats certainly need a reality check.

Ebay can make listings free for items upto $10 .They will still make a lot from the commission.
That will boost up their sales.