Today, April contracts for light, sweet crude oil finished the day at $62.11 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude finished trading at $62.38 per barrel on the London Exchange (Data source: AP). This is a two-month high for the commodity.
I believe the run in crude oil is not over due to the macroeconomic situation (increasing demand worldwide) and the solid upside trend being established in the commodity. I also believe the commodity could rise as professional investors (e.g. hedge funds) are hesitant to invest heavily in the equity markets due to Tuesday's performance. Investors interested in playing a continued rally in the commodity have several options: the underlying commodity (through a futures broker or multi-product broker such as Interactive Brokers), the crude oil ETF (ticker OIL), or a publicly traded oil/gas company. Each of these methods would have their benefits and negatives. Although the underlying commodity most-closely tracks the price of crude oil (because it is the underlying contract), this product could be very difficult for many readers to purchase if they do not use a multi-product broker or have a futures-trading account. In addition, generally speaking, futures are a risky game to play without being fully informed on the risks, mainly the amount of leverage available. While leverage is very appealing to beginners at first glance, many quickly forget it works both ways and are unpleasantly reminded when they find their futures contract trading down. The crude oil ETF is more appropriate for non-professional investors for several reasons. Primarily, ETFs can be purchased through any stock broker at normal commissions. Consequently, the margin requirements are the same as any other stock (2:1 margin in most cases, 4:1 in some cases) so amateur investors would face less risk of a big loss. Lastly, the publicly-traded company option is most appropriate for investors who enjoy and succeed in performing analysis on and trading individual stocks.
I have been following two oil stocks lately. First, Hercules Offshore, Inc (NASDAQ:HERO) appears to be pretty cheap and has recently caught a bid. The company provides shallow-water drilling services. It boasts a solid balance sheet, a multiple of less than 5 on TTM EV/EBITDA, and a mere multiple of less than 6 on 2008 earnings. The company's stock has also recently caught a bid recently moving off its $25 per share base towards the end of February.
In addition, I have been watching faster-growth Flotek Industries, Inc. (AMEX:FTK). This company provides products, specifically tools, to oil and natural gas drilling companies. The company bears higher-risk than HERO due to its much steeper valuation (and recent selling by some insiders) but I think it could be worth the risk because the company is growing at a much faster rate. Like Hercules, this stock has also been catching a bid recently - moving from $23 range of late January to its current price of $27. The stock was down today.
It seems like the oil-thesis is back in play (after being out of favor for several months). I believe the sector is going to remain in an uptrend due to the positive fundamentals (steady demand worldwide) and the uncertainty in the equity markets which should cause more fund managers to move towards other investment products (commodities, currencies, etc.) to try to avoid extremely high volatility, like the volatility experienced in the US markets on Tuesday.
Last updated: November 28, 2009: 01:10 AM
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