The phenom of Nike vs. the has-been Gap

Being in London for a few days gives one a perspective of how outsiders view our markets and other general trends. I had a meeting with a British portfolio manager, James, who partially specializes in US retailers. He is the co-manager of a $3 billion US growth fund for a major mutual fund company based in London. He travels to the US five to six times per year to visit companies and attend various growth conferences. He is an absolute seller of the Gap Inc. (NYSE:GPS) and is using those dollars to buy and add to his Nike Inc. (NYSE:NKE) position.

As a quick backdrop, I wrote in my book "Stop Losing Money Today" about various companies that serve a niche market, or a fad market; and companies that become absolute phenomenons. One such company that I highlighted was Nike. Nike began as a niche sneaker maker/marketer that migrated to a fad during the "joggers" period of the 70's to an outright phenomenon in the 90's as it expanded its products to apparel, shoes for men and women, and opened its extensive retail stores. Today Nike sells over $16 billion worth of merchandise.

The Gap, on the other hand, has become a has-been concept in the retail world. The distribution channels are massive for the Gap, with over 3,000 outlets representing the Gap Stores, Banana Republic and Old Navy. But they have miscalculated the fickle consumer and underestimated the competition from players like Abercrombie and Fitch. The Gap has had senior management issues (never a good sign) and has retained a senior search firm to find a new CEO. The holiday season was very disappointing for the Gap concepts.

At one time in the 1990's, the Gap Stores "was it". They owned the teenage and twenty-something markets. They really infused the nation with the comfort and casual look. But eventually, the Gap became an old and passe concept and did not keep up with changing tastes and trends.

Nike has led the athletic apparel and footwear market and has withstood the fierce competition from Russell, Adidas, Reebok and now the hot manufacturer Under Armour (NYSE:UA). Nike has consistently portrayed an image of quality yet cutting edge. Nike realized early on that the decision makers for footwear and apparel are teenagers, not parents, and they aligned themselves with major university athletic programs. The brilliance of Nike was to open the retail stores as they can control all aspects of the purchase. Customers coming in to buy a pair of shoes, invariably walk out with t-shirts and other accessories added to the purchase.

Nike has never sat pat on any of their footwear or apparel lines. They are constantly tweaking the offerings and keeping them fresh and appealing. Interestingly, both Gap and Nike sell about $16 billion of merchandise annually, but Nike is growing and solid, while Gap is struggling and unfocused.

James did confess to me that he wears Reebok shoes himself!!

Georges Yared is the author of "Stop Losing Money Today" and "Baby Boomer Investing...Where do we go from here?"