Crystal ball is murky on Oracle's Q3 earnings

When business applications software maker Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ:ORCL) announced last week its intention to purchase rival Hyperion Solutions (NASDAQ:HYSL), Oracle not only made a move to improve its position to challenge sector leader SAP (NYSE:SAP), it also continued its well-established strategy of expansion through acquisition.

Germany-based SAP did show weakness in its Q4 report back in January, and more recently has denied rumors that its founders are looking to sell their stake in SAP.

But the Oracle-Hyperion deal has prompted speculation about other mergers and acquisitions that may follow in its wake. These and other reservations about the deal were explored recently by Blogging Stocks contributors Georges Yared and Tom Taulli.

The question is, how will all this shake out when Oracle reports its Q3 earnings on March 20? According to Thomson Financial, the consensus revenue estimate is $4.3 billion, with earnings per share of 23 cents, as compared to actual $4.1 billion and EPS of 22 cents last quarter. The consensus rates ORCL a buy, with 12 strong buy recommendations, 10 buy, and 12 holds, from those analysts' surveyed. The price target is $19.59; ORCL opened Wednesday at $16.77. The 52-week high was $19.75 in late November, and the 52-week low of $12.72 about a year ago.

Can Oracle beat analysts' expectations, perhaps signaling a serious run at SAP, or will complications from its acquisitions strategy and other market factors cause it to fall short? How do things in the crystal ball look to you?