Tradedoubler's bid nearning an end; AOL free to go elsewhere

Tomorrow will mark the expiration (March 14) of the buyout offer for Tradedoubler by Time Warner's (NYSE:TWX) AOL. As a reminder, AOL had offered 215 Swedish Kroners per share and it had been approved by the board of Tradedoubler, but a band of large shareholders vowed to fight the bid as inadequate.

This morning Reuters noted that AFA Insurance does not intend to tender its shares. This is after the Alecta and AMF Pension have rejected the offer, and AOL has nowhere near enough votes to acquire the company. What is interesting is that AOL just announced an online ad pact with Gannett's PointRoll unit for media-rich online advertising. By now AOL has probably learned the nuts and bolts of Tradedoubler's business. It also probably doesn't need or want the tax burdens of dealing in Sweden (if you have lived in Scandinavia you will understand).

AOL has telegraphed on numerous times that the company will not increase its offer. So AOL will be able to look for other partners in the sector AND it won't have to spend $900 million for the company. Tradedoubler might have been a great add-on for AOL in content ad management in Europe, but for $900 million Time Warner may be thinking "good riddance." This would have also been expensive since TradeDoubler's valuations are compared as "higher than Google" by European traders.

This was a strange deal because it required a 90% approval to proceed. Most of us can't even reach a 90% consensus in a one-person vote, quite a paradox.

Jon Ogg is a partner in 24/7 Wall St., LLC; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.