Make smart financial decisions with DailyFinance

AOL Money & Finance

Valero: What goes up keeps going up?!

More

Terrible market not hurting Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) stock....looks bullet proof for now. Almost everything is going down but not Valero and even more interesting it still has very strong fundamentals after a 20% run-up this year. I own Valero and find that the story is still compelling. I may even buy more. As I write this post, the market is down and Valero is up.

Last month when I wrote Valero - everyone jumping on the bandwagon I was marveling about how this company seemed to be the darling of so many that it made me self-conscious to be part of the group. However, I had pegged VLO in my stock picks for 2007 months earlier: Valero Energy: Unbelievable value for 2007.


So where are the fundamentals now? Start with a P/E of 6.8, less than most oil or energy stocks. It has a ROE of 32.54, a ROA of 14.44 and a ROIC of 23.13 all higher than the P/E. Even more interesting the P/S is only 0.42. That means that if Valero's sales were cut in half, doubling the P/S to 0.84, still less than a desirable 1.0, it seems that it would still be cheap. SOMEONE TELL ME WHAT I AM NOT SEEING! How could this be, that with sales cut in half it would still be a bargain after rising 20% already? The price-to-book is 1.85, also low. It also pays a small dividend of 0.80. Check out AOL Money & Finance for the data.

Here is a curiosity about Valero Energy. If it is the largest oil refiner in the USA then every time refining capacity becomes an issue it makes more money charging a premium. Suppose it lost capacity because of damage or shut downs at a refinery ... then it still makes more money because with less capacity there will be tighter fuel supply and prices will go up. It wins no matter what happens because it is the bottleneck in the system and building a highly regulated project like a refinery is near impossible in the United States.

So what if the stock went from $60 to $90 per share with no increase in earnings? YES another 50% stock increase. Then the P/E would be $90 / $8.31 = 10.8. That does not seem unreasonable? So I think Valero may still be a value and most definitely belongs on everyone's watch list.

Check out my other posts for BloggingStocks here.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+5.528,183.93
NASDAQ+8.011,755.18
S&P 500+3.29882.85

Last updated: July 09, 2009: 03:51 PM

BloggingStocks Exclusives

Hot Stocks

DailyFinance Headlines

Latest from BloggingBuyouts

TheFlyOnTheWall.com Headlines

BioHealth Investor Headlines

WalletPop Headlines

My Portfolios

Track your stocks here!

Find out why more people track their portfolios on AOL Money & Finance then anywhere else.

BloggingStocks Partners

More from AOL Money & Finance

WalletPop Headlines