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An OPIC to counter OPEC

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Most readers, and certainly trader/investors have heard of OPEC -- the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries that controls about 35% of the world's oil production.

On Friday, OPEC, as expected, voted to keep oil production at current levels. Analysts considered it a prudent move, given the fact that, despite a slowing global economy, demand for petroleum-based products remains strong, which has helped keep oil's price above the $55/barrel level.

Prior to the meetings, several price-hawk OPEC members had floated the idea of a production cut, arguing that the global economic slowdown could propel a substantial drop in oil's price, perhaps to below $40 per barrel. However, with no let-up in demand seen in either the Western or Eastern hemispheres, and oil showing few signs of falling below $50, let alone $40, the decision by OPEC to maintain the status quo regarding production was the appropriate choice, in the view of most oil analysts.

Still, the OPEC cartel has not been known for placing the interest of the global economy over the cartel's interest. OPEC was responsible for the devastating 1973 oil shock, and has not been too effective at reigning-in hawkish members, such as Iran, who helped precipitate the world's second oil shock, in 1979.
Further, its been the lack of harmony between the global economy's interest and OPEC's that's led to talk of forming a countering cartel of developed nations, an "Organization of Petroleum Importing Countries" -- or OPIC.

OPIC's benefits are obvious enough: A coordinated, disciplined program to lower oil and energy consumption by the major industrialized nations: The United States, European Union and China -- to substantially lower the price of oil, put the importing nations back in the power position in the buyer/seller relationship, and eventually, to transition the developed world to renewable energy.

OPIC's costs would be significant, but those costs appear to be minor when compared against the specter of $5 per gallon gasoline and excessive greenhouse gases.

Note: In a future blog, The Fly will outline the strengths and costs of a potential OPIC -- an Organization of Petroleum Importing Countries.
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Last updated: November 10, 2009: 02:36 PM

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