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As latest suitor prepares to walk, Tribune shares could drop

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Billionaire Sam Zell seemed to like the idea of owning part of the Tribune Company (NYSE:TRB), for a few minutes at least. Other billionaires, like Eli Broad and Ron Burkle, were interested in buying only some of its newspapers. Private equity interests have approached the company about its TV stations.

Now the company is facing the March 31 deadline it set for bids and it appears that no one wants to pony up, at least not at a price much north of where the company currently trades.

That is very bad news for TRB shareholders. Because Wall Street has been hoping for a big bid, Tribune shares are only a few percentage points below where they traded a year ago. Similar companies like The New York Times Company (NYSE:NYT), McClatchy Company Holding (NYSE:MNI), and Journal Register Co. (NYSE:JRC) are off much more. McClatchy shares declined 35% over the period and stock in Journal Register is down 45%.

All of this means that when the March 31 deadline passes, Tribune shares could begin to correct and it would not be a shock if that correction takes that stock down 20% -- at least if investors look at the performance of similar companies.

The Tribune Company needs to find another billionaire.

Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.

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Last updated: November 27, 2009: 05:11 AM

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