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It is no coincidence the Fed changed its language last week from concerns about inflation picking up to a neutral stance on prices. From looking at the chart below, when the downward slope of the economic leading indicators has been this steep, it has meant a meaningful slowdown is on the horizon.Mr. Bernanke is very aware of this chart. The question is how proactive he wants to be. Greenspan never would have stopped raising rates when Bernanke did -- a very bold move for the relatively new Fed Chairman. A bolder move would be to lower rates at the next meeting and forgo a recession.
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