Poor Bill Miller. After seeing his Cal Ripken-esque 15-year streak of beating the market end in 2006, he's trailing the S&P 500 again in 2007. His investors at the $21 billion Legg Mason Value Trust were probably content to laugh off the end of his run, but another off-year in 2007 could raise some eyebrows. Is Bill Miller finished, some will ask? Or, can he make a comeback amid mounting pressure to deliver returns to shareholders?
When asked about whether his amazing run was just a fluke, Miller replied by pointing out that the odds of beating the market every year from 1991 to 2005 are about 1 in 2.3 million. "So there was probably some skill involved... On the other hand, something with odds of 1 in 2.3 million happens to about 130 people per day in the U.S., so you never know."
I wouldn't give up on Bill Miller just yet. He's one of the greatest investing minds ever, and I would look for him to regain his form. And if he doesn't? Well then he just be another member of the 90% of mutual fund managers who don't beat the market.
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