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Speculating on the changing grain of wood products

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Paper is King! Long live the wood products! Ah yes, that is the single most dependable mantra upon which my home state of Wisconsin is built. First there was the early fur trade that brought eager French entrepreneurs into the region. Then, there were profitable but short-lived mining opportunities that helped bring in the railroads. As land was cleared and transportation options increased, we became farmers and dairy providers extraordinaire. But perhaps most important of all have been our trees. Remember Chicago, we built you not once but a second time also after you burned the first efforts to the ground!

So what has this got to do with investing? Well, if you don't even feel a connection, perhaps you'd like to read further. There's a lot of activity swirling around the wood products sector and it's not all bad. For instance, did you know that recent polls have concluded that the decline in newspaper readership has stalled? Yes it's true, but the pollsters would like you to interpret that as meaning that internet (blog) readership is therefore in decline. I'm sure it makes no difference that the polls I viewed were conducted by agencies who mostly serve the televised news services (chuckle, chuckle, snort, snort). Perhaps one day they'll get wise and realize that newspapers are the apples, blogs are the oranges and televised newscasts are more like tasteless avocados, which are of little use until made into guacamole. For further input on the subject of newspaper journalism and it's future, please read the excellent article by Jeff Jarvis at BuzzMachine. Newspapers aren't suffering as badly as some would have you believe. I'll write more on this later.

This past week we received news that Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) is planning to cease Life Magazine publication. Then shortly after that we got word that we'd see the demise of Child Magazine. On both counts I'll plead, I'll believe it when I see it, or when I don't see it as the case may be. I'd give you even money on the possibility that both declarations of publication cessation are threats made towards advertising space clients as much as they're announcements to an affected readership. If I'm wrong, then you had better buy shares in the PC notebook manufacturers because they'll be selling a whole lot of them as our magazines drop out of existence one by one. Just remember that I don't think anyone ever got mugged on a subway for a magazine, and you may need to take you laptop along on your next visit to the doctor's or dentist's waiting room.

What about that ethanol fuel? You know, that "big joke" Jim Cramer claimed that everyone is in on. Oh, that's right Cramer has changed his tune again. Now he says ethanol is worth looking into. In any case, if you've been tracking the price of corn then you know we have a serious situation developing there. Watch for cellulosic ethanol operations to take root in the northern forest region as the wisdom of wood waste displaces the folly of distilling foodstuffs as fuel for anything other than a beverage incited hangover, or possibly for soy sauce.

Possibly the single biggest factor that will affect the American wood products industries over the next decade is the impending reduction of imported raw logs from emerging third-world nations. There are two dynamics coming to bear here. First, countries such as Indonesia are continuing to fight exportation of what they deem are illegally harvested logs. An article on PR Inside reveals that, "Two timber shipments arriving every day in U.S. ports from Indonesia are categorized as illegal under Indonesian law. The article exposes that American consumer demand for cheap wood products has led to the formation in Indonesia of sophisticated criminal networks who deal in illegal wood exports. The second scenario that is playing through is that developing countries are learning the truth about value-added manufacturing and are opting to no longer ship their logs until they have been converted into salable products. They are encountering resistance from their own loggers who cite high timber values on the international market as reason to export all they can, but governments are working to encourage a change of focus to their own domestic manufacturing operations, and it is without doubt that compromises shall be reached and/or enforced.

To me, all the above factors working in unison signal strong days ahead for American wood harvesters and manufacturers. The increased costs associated with higher oil prices do play significantly on profitability, but when adding in the logistical factors, higher oil prices serve to help protect American wood industries by adding compounded costs to the imports. The next few years shall see significant changes in the wood products industries, and from where I'm sitting, the picture looks pretty darn good.

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Last updated: November 27, 2009: 01:45 AM

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