The Gap or Abercrombie & Fitch: Who is more tragically hip?


This post is part of our Battle of the Brands feature. Let us know which brand you prefer, and watch out for more Battle of the Brands posts.

Every time I walk through a mall (not too often these days), I see a new "hip" store of which I was previously unaware. I can always count on a few mainstays, though ... the cell-phone-accessory kiosk manned by overly enthusiastic employees, the tantalizing aroma from Auntie Anne's pretzels, and the always tasteful novelty shops. In most malls, I can typically scope out the latest yuppie fashions in either Gap (NYSE: GPS) or Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) (and often-times both). Despite the encroachment of Hot Topic (NASDAQ: HOTT), Pacific Sunwear of California (NASDAQ: PSUN), and other trendy competitors, these two venerable names have stood the test of time, providing relatively affordable threads for men, women, and kids.

In addition to its eponymous chain, which was started in 1969, GPS runs the Old Navy and Banana Republic chains. The retailer's most recent experiment, Forth & Towne (created to appeal to thirty-something career woman) was a bust and has now been abandoned after 18 months. Same-store sales trends have turned south of late, dropping five percent in fiscal year 2005 and slumping seven percent last year. And during the past 12-month cycle, GPS has seen its quarterly earnings drop more than 35 percent. The stock is well off its highs, having lost two-thirds of its value since early 2000. With technical resistance bearing down in the form of the equity's 10-month and 20-month moving averages, relief might not be in sight for a while.

ANF has been around even longer, outfitting Teddy Roosevelt and Ernest Hemingway (obviously, the retailer's target demographic has shifted somewhat). The firm's website indicates that comparable-store sales grew by 26 percent in fiscal year 2005, and edged up 2 percent last year. Quarterly earnings have expanded 20 percent on a year-over-year basis, and quarterly revenue is up 18.4 percent from year to year. What's more, ANF boasts a notably low forward price-to-earnings ratio of 12.87, compared to the 17.53 P/E ratio at GPS. ANF has stair-stepped around a bit of late, but remains in an overall uptrend. Above its 10-month and 20-month moving averages, ANF has appreciated roughly 250 percent since the end of 2003.

When it comes down to personal preference, I easily favor ANF jeans; they cost a bit more, but they fit well, come in a variety of funky styles, and last for years. But the shopping experience tends to be a bit more copacetic at GPS. True story: I once had an ANF employee sigh and tell me that size-six jeans were kept in the back, as only zeros through four were on the shelves for public consumption. She might as well have said she had to go grab a pair for me out of the elephant room. (Now perhaps this display practice is no longer true, or was only true to that isolated location.) GPS commercials have always cheered me, from the everybody in vests series (featuring a young, pre-Office Rashida Jones!) to the latest smart spot with Claire Danes and Patrick Wilson, while the controversial ANF catalogs basically give me the creeps. ANF clothes are always more cutting edge, while GPS has become a bit too beige for my taste during the past few seasons. So for my business, it's a draw between the two retailers, but for the short-term investor, ANF looks like the better play.

Beth Gaston Moon is an analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research.

Be sure to vote in our poll for Abercrombie or Gap as your preferred brand, and let us know why you love it in the comments. Results of all Battle of the Brands match-ups coming soon.

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