Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) took out a full page advertisement in today's Wall Street Journal simply stating that 100 million iPod's had been sold since the device's inception. The simple tagline reads "Thanks to music lovers everywhere." It is reminiscent of the old McDonald's Corp. (NYSE: MCD) inscription below the Golden Arches of "X billions served." Now, after McDonald's years and years of market saturation, the simple text beneath the golden arches reads: "billions and billions served." The coolness of following the number went away and the message got a little stale. Apple is still years away from becoming stale.
Apple is a phenomenon because of several profitable and still growing moving parts. The fact that Apple has sold its one-hundred-millionth iPod and commands a dominating marketshare of 70% is itself phenomenal, but the market is still vastly under-penetrated. Many consumers are already on their 2nd and 3rd versions of the iPod. The number of individuals that have purchased the device is about 40 million (Apple has been hesitant about giving out that specific number). When one considers the size and scope of the market -- world-wide -- the penetration level of potential buyers is far, far away from saturation. This will also bring in more and more competition, as was announced by Yahoo Inc. ( NASDAQ: YHOO) this morning introducing a simple $250 device.
What is beautiful about the financial model for Apple is the recurring revenue theme. As consumers buy the iPod, a huge percentage of them then open an account with the iTunes store and the Apple cash register just keeps on ringing. The hardware may be upgraded for another revenue stream, but the earnings model does not "count-on" that event happening. The iTunes store provides a long-lasting customer relationship and an upgrade to new iPod models becomes easier.
Apple has successfully understood the consumer, better than any technology company. As one senior portfolio manager put it to me simply: "Apple just gets it. They get the consumer, whether a young person to an old person. They just get it." Nicely and accurately put. When the iPhone rolls out in June, Apple's advantage is the massively happy installed base of customers. The missionary sales cycle will be by-passed on this product. The early adopters alone will drive huge incremental revenue and of course, yet to be revealed, how Apple will be part of the "recurring revenue" stream.
Apple's mission over the next 7-12 quarters will be to manage analysts expectations on both revenues and earnings, manage suppliers for a consistency of components, and keep the consumer happy and coming back for more. The retail store base, 173 strong, will be the focal point for iPhone sales and services. Apple has kept the numbers game to a tight range as far as Wall Street analysts are concerned. The other aspects of Apple's business would require another 2-3 pages to dissect. The new and improved Mac computer is another budding phenomenon within Apple. That, with improved CPU units, software enhancements and other product improvements gives Apple a multi-pronged approach to its revenue model. Apple cannot be labeled a one- or two-trick pony.
The phenomenon that has become Apple will continue for another 3-5 years. You'll know it has become passe when Apple changes its full page advertisements to "millions and millions sold"...
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
4-09-2007 @ 5:43PM
jon said...
yes apple understands the market, but you got that market all wrong, Apple makes their money on the ipod sales, not itunes sales, they hardly make anything on selling music because the big studios have a monopoly grip on the music, and Apple had to hand all those profits over to get them to even try the itunes experiment...
the studios are so stupid from being monopolies that they have to have someone else show them how to sell their music and at what price... people have to actually convince them to do things correctly and make money through pure will.....
jon.
4-09-2007 @ 7:07PM
David Atkinson said...
You stated that "The retail store base, 173 strong, will be the focal point for iPhone sales and services." By my calculation, Apple currently has 177 stores open throughout the world, with #178 opening in Birmingham, Alabama this Saturday.
4-10-2007 @ 8:52AM
Ben said...
Jon, you may want to check your facts but Apple makes at least 50 to 60% on iTunes music sales. Why would they sell music on iTunes if they weren't going to make any money. That would be pointless.
It's not like they wouldn't sell iPods if they didn't have the iTunes Store.
4-10-2007 @ 9:50AM
Dom said...
Ben, I'm pretty sure the iTunes store first opened so that iPod owners (Mac users only back then) could access digital music sold online. At that point, it was all Microsoft-only - and in fact mostly still is bar iTunes and a few smaller joints. Any profit on the revenue is sure to be welcomed but I thought it was of secondary importance and from what I hear it still isn't much more than break-even. You sure it's 50% - 60% ?
4-10-2007 @ 10:11AM
Dru Richman said...
Ben -
Apple makes 50%-60% on iTunes sales? How do you figure that?
On a sale of $.99, the RIAA (i.e. the recording companies et. al.) get $.65 off thetop. That leaves $.34 for Apple (or almost 34% for those mathematically inclined). Of that $.34 Apple pays for web site (design, maintenance, support, etc), micro-processing of credit cards, salaries, PR, and who know what-all-else.
Bottom line is that Apple is making about $.06 profit per song sold.
4-10-2007 @ 2:08PM
dunk said...
@jon,
apple may not make much money on itunes songs right now, but that will change as more consumers move to an all digital purchase cycle. digital downloads currently represent about 3-5% of the total music purchases at that rate apple is selling about half a billion tracks per year -- that's $150 million a year. now consider that apple won't be able to maintain their 85% market share of the download market. let's knock them down to 30%, that's roughly 600% to 1000% their return now or roughly between $1 and $1.5 billion dollars a year. not all of that will be profit, they have to pay for servers, storage and bandwidth, but all three of those items are rapidly coming down in price.
then let's throw in the television and movie side of itunes. if they can capture say 10% of 2005 sales/rentals and you can count on another $2 billion.
personally i think those figures are conservative and apple will see $5 billion in annual revenue from downloads by 2012.
4-12-2007 @ 2:58PM
Scott Burnlounge said...
I am so glad for Apple, but proprietary markets tend not to last, especially when none of the profits from the residual revenues are put back in the hands of the music lovers. I became a retailer on burnlounge www.burnlounge.com/LighthousePTmusic as has many of my friends, and althought I bought an iPod from Apple, I now buy the digital music for my MP3 player from myself, as do all of my family.
4-12-2007 @ 3:06PM
Michael N said...
The next step the Apple I-Pod that would be revolutionary is make that device wireless. Gone would be the cubersome, tangled-mess the earbud wire. This could be done via a transmitter,or molded into a headphone in a self-contained unit over the head.
4-29-2007 @ 2:24PM
Trisha V said...
"The Secret" has many references to positive thinking, I agree with Scott, why continue to support proprietary when you can get compensated for your own purchases and those of your family, friends and communities and social networks. Check out mine www.burnlounge.com/TheSecret