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Apple is a Phenomenon

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Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) took out a full page advertisement in today's Wall Street Journal simply stating that 100 million iPod's had been sold since the device's inception. The simple tagline reads "Thanks to music lovers everywhere." It is reminiscent of the old McDonald's Corp. (NYSE: MCD) inscription below the Golden Arches of "X billions served." Now, after McDonald's years and years of market saturation, the simple text beneath the golden arches reads: "billions and billions served." The coolness of following the number went away and the message got a little stale. Apple is still years away from becoming stale.

Apple is a phenomenon because of several profitable and still growing moving parts. The fact that Apple has sold its one-hundred-millionth iPod and commands a dominating marketshare of 70% is itself phenomenal, but the market is still vastly under-penetrated. Many consumers are already on their 2nd and 3rd versions of the iPod. The number of individuals that have purchased the device is about 40 million (Apple has been hesitant about giving out that specific number). When one considers the size and scope of the market -- world-wide -- the penetration level of potential buyers is far, far away from saturation. This will also bring in more and more competition, as was announced by Yahoo Inc. ( NASDAQ: YHOO) this morning introducing a simple $250 device.

What is beautiful about the financial model for Apple is the recurring revenue theme. As consumers buy the iPod, a huge percentage of them then open an account with the iTunes store and the Apple cash register just keeps on ringing. The hardware may be upgraded for another revenue stream, but the earnings model does not "count-on" that event happening. The iTunes store provides a long-lasting customer relationship and an upgrade to new iPod models becomes easier.

Apple has successfully understood the consumer, better than any technology company. As one senior portfolio manager put it to me simply: "Apple just gets it. They get the consumer, whether a young person to an old person. They just get it." Nicely and accurately put. When the iPhone rolls out in June, Apple's advantage is the massively happy installed base of customers. The missionary sales cycle will be by-passed on this product. The early adopters alone will drive huge incremental revenue and of course, yet to be revealed, how Apple will be part of the "recurring revenue" stream.

Apple's mission over the next 7-12 quarters will be to manage analysts expectations on both revenues and earnings, manage suppliers for a consistency of components, and keep the consumer happy and coming back for more. The retail store base, 173 strong, will be the focal point for iPhone sales and services. Apple has kept the numbers game to a tight range as far as Wall Street analysts are concerned. The other aspects of Apple's business would require another 2-3 pages to dissect. The new and improved Mac computer is another budding phenomenon within Apple. That, with improved CPU units, software enhancements and other product improvements gives Apple a multi-pronged approach to its revenue model. Apple cannot be labeled a one- or two-trick pony.

The phenomenon that has become Apple will continue for another 3-5 years. You'll know it has become passe when Apple changes its full page advertisements to "millions and millions sold"...

For more of Georges' stock ideas, go to Yared Investment Research.

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Last updated: July 10, 2009: 12:39 PM

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