Bill Martin – well-known for his role as founder of the Raging Bull website – now shares his trading and investment advice in his always-intriguing FindProfit newsletter.
And while noting that his latest buy "strays a bit from our usual small-to mid-cap focus," he is nevertheless willing to "step up and buy web giant eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY)."
After watching EBAY for years, he says, "we believe that the stock now represents an attractive purchase for long-term investors."
Ne notes that the stock began underperforming in 2005 as growth in its core marketplace business slowed and Google gained operating steam. Meanwhile, he says, the stock is now over 20% below its 52-week high and equal to the levels it traded at in early 2004.
In his view, EBAY is now an "attractive growth at a reasonable price stock." He forecasts that the company should generate nearly $2 billion in free cash flow in 2007 despite, he notes, high levels of capital expenditures.
The advisor notes, "To us, EBAY increasingly looks like the kind of high-class company that Warren Buffett loves: it has a strong brand and franchise, it generates substantial returns on equity, it is positioned to grow for as far as the eye can see, and it is in a position to reinvest its cash flows at high rates of return."
At the core, he observes, EBAY's marketplace business -- which he admits is maturing -- is "a wonderful cash flow generator with powerful network effects that create defensibility." Further, he adds, even though the marketplace business is no longer the high growth machine that it once was, it should continue to grow at low double-digit rates for a long time to come.
He observers, "Where EBAY management has impressed us -- and this is where we think the overall story gains 'legs' -- is in their continued ability to make smart and timely acquisitions while leveraging its massive marketplace user base."
The first example of this, he notes, was the company's acquisition of PayPal which he says has now become a cash cow. Adding to this, he mptes os the 2006 purchase Skype, a deal that he says initially generated "tremendous investor skepticism."
Looking back on that deal one year later, he says, the acquisition of Skype now looks "genius to us."
In addition to these major acquisitions, he notes that EBAY has made a number of smaller acquisitions, such as Rent.com, Shopping.com, and StubHub. Each of these, he notes, fits into the company's marketplace focus, while "leveraging EBAY's mammoth user base and other strengths."
Martin also likes that the company holds $3.5 billion of cash and is continuing to "aggressively" buy-in stock. He says, "After purchasing $1.7 billion worth of shares in 2006, EBAY announced an additional $2 billion buyback on its last earnings call."
He considers this a "wise use of EBAY's prolific cash flows, and a reflection of the stock's attractive valuation." He concludes, "With a little luck, we believe that EBAY can deliver low to mid double-digit annual returns over the next 3-5 years, with fairly limited downside risk."
For more stock picks from the leading financial newsletter advisors, visit Steven Halpern's free daily website, TheStockAdvisors.com.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
4-11-2007 @ 2:57PM
Geno said...
Thanks Steven. I couldn't agree with you more. I am happy to see that someone has actually saw eBay's "BIG" picture here which is growth and longterm.
4-11-2007 @ 5:21PM
Alex said...
The key factor for Ebay that will ensure long-term growth is cracking the Chinese market (as Meg said herself).
Remind me how Ebay plan to do this again?
4-11-2007 @ 11:51PM
terry said...
Ebay partnered with TOM. TOM is owned by Li Kaishing, the richest man in all of Asia. Mr. Kaishing has close personal relationship AND ties with the Prime Minister in China and senior government officials. He has billions invested in the mainland. It's still too early but if you now how anything works in China RELATIONSHIP with the right people IS EVERYTHING.
How do I know? I'm chinese.
4-12-2007 @ 7:14PM
Lou said...
The eBay valuation is an interesting case, they have significant growth opportunities in Skype and PayPal and there is always that 25% stake in Craigslist. Not sure what the point of noting that eBay is trading below it's 52 week high, valuation is a forwarding looking practice. Does the current price overvalue eBay's opportunities? Skype currently has annual revenues of approximately $200 million and while there is significant growth potential this only represents 3% of eBay's current revenues. It is one thing to talk about the fantastic growth opportunities but the crucial thing to do is to translate them into a value today. I know everyone will have a different opinion on this, Valuecruncher.com has put some numbers together came up with a mid-point valuation of $28 (http://www.valuecruncher.com/wordpress/index.php). Even with some aggressive growth assumptions they are still well short of today's price. eBay a buy? Not for me.