Grant Case, a student at Indiana U.'s Kelly School of Business, posted a wonderfully detailed study yesterday of Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) that suggests the manufacturer is hip-deep in unsold bikes. According to the numbers posted on the SeekingAlpha web site, by the end of 4th quarter 2006 over 40,000 more bikes sat on showroom floors than the same quarter in 2004. He estimates this dealer build contributed around $1.00 to HOG's EPS over the past two years.

Harley's first quarter figures are bound to be a bit screwy due to the strike that they recently resolved, and Case speculates that the company might take this opportunity to bury thieir inventory problem in an overall poor quarterly report. Coupled with the exposure of HDFS's bike financing in the credit crunch that Michael Rainey blogged about here recently, the earnings announcement on April 19th should be more interesting than most.

Certainly having a jammed showroom when the spring weather first hits is a dealer's dream, but entering next winter with cobwebs on the apehangers is a dismal prospect. Stockholders should be crossing their fingers for some good riding weather, and soon.