Subprime lending mess will be worse than predicted
The twin pillars of the continuing lending industry nightmare are tightening credit standards and increased foreclosures, according to a spokesperson for the NAR. Tightening credit standards were likely to come back once greedy subprime lenders actually realized that low and behold, economic conditions and housing markets may, gasp, change and may make foreclosures rise. In turn, credit standards go back to where they've been from a traditional lending perspective and those considered in the subprime market start getting squeezed out.
On lighter news (heh), the group also stated that new home sales are now expected to plummet 14.2% while existing home prices are expected to drop 0.7% after a slight rise at the start of 2006. In other words, the housing market in this existing cycle peaked somewhere before the middle of 2005. Ever since, the slide has been visible but only slightly pronounced. Now, it is in full swing.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
4-12-2007 @ 1:53PM
Richard said...
I think using subprime rate lending as an excuse for the collapsing housing market is just the tip of the iceberg. Teaser rates begin at 5% and then adjust upward just like adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs)when they increase to meet fixed rates or even higher. The reality is, most people who live in a home for five years or less are duped into taking out re-financing loans plus cash out to purchase more amenities for themselves such as upgrading their homes, buying new cars and taking lavish vacations. They are duped into believing they have equity in their homes when in fact the so-called equity isn't based on the principal paid in, but on the quirks of reappraised market values. In some cases, there is little gain in the market, but that doesn't stop banks from making home refinancing loans, often at amounts far exceeding the home's actual value. In other words, if home prices fall and the borrower can't sell it for the same price the bank appraised it for the buyer is going to lose money. It's called being upside down -- the same problem that people have when they turn in a leased vehicle which isn't worth the residual owed. If the actual market value of the car is lower than the residual the leasee absorbs the difference.
The big problem can be seen in a couple of very simple statistics: wages, total income and total debt. If wages remain stagnant (which they have over the last 5 years) annual income may not cover the monthly mortgage payment nor take into account other factors like home owner association fees and increased property taxes. Total debt, usually on plastic credit cards that carry 10% or more interest and financing charges, piles up, even if the home has a fixed 6.5% 30-year loan.
Let's face it: we are all gluttons and the reason why we're in such a big financial mess is mostly our own fault for letting our eyes become bigger than our stomachs. Eventually, though, someone has to pay the piper and bankruptcies will continue to rise.
4-12-2007 @ 6:29PM
mgmagri said...
Agreed, I have been thinking that this was coming due for along time. Too many speculators watching late night infomercials about getting rich quick in real estate. Classic asset bubble follows, then pop!Add in easily available credit, and lax lending standards and you have a big problem with lots of zero's coming after you. Many people who think they are not going to be affected by this will find that they are wrong because thousands of these mortgages were securitized and sold in tranches to hedge funds, mutuals, pension funds, etc.