Peter's quarterly preview post referenced some interesting things about Intel's just-completed quarter. The biggest one, of course, is the played-out pricing situation Intel and rival AMD had in the first three months of 2007. This has been going on for years and years and have had intense and relaxed periods. AMD, the scrappy underdog, has beaten Intel on many fronts in the last few years and has taken marketshare as a result (while sacrificing margins). Intel, though, has fought back, and in 2006 the company was battling front and center with its smaller rival in the desktop PC chip market.
AMD just admitted last week that gross margin pressures has hurt it (due to price wars with Intel), and the same concern is now sitting in Intel's court. Will its Q1 results reflect a dampened margin environment based on it competing handily with its smaller rival? Click here to see the details on Intel's just-released Q1 results, then follow the liveblog below.
Let's find out, shall we? Remember to use the "Refresh" button on your web browser to refresh your screen every few minutes as updates occur to this post. All times below are in EST.
5:30pm -- waiting on the Intel conference and webcast to start.
5:33pm -- we are underway folks. CEO Paul Otellini and CFO Andy Bryant will be handling the call it appears. Paul starts with the standard opening remarks...
5:34pm -- Paul's script reads like a standard PR release. Quite boring, in fact (like these remarks often are). But, at least he's glossing over specifics instead of not mentioning them.
5:36pm -- Paul says that the transition from 65nm technology to 45nm technology is "well on its way" to happening on a large scale this year. He's talking cache sizes and die sizes now, as he's into a little geek-speak on Intel's technical prowess.
5:39pm -- Paul hands the call over to CFO Andy Bryant. Andy starts by going over the gross margins (50.1%) and the cutting in spending -- being $500 million less than what it was a year ago. $8.9 billion was Intel's Q1 revenue, down 9% from Q4 of 2006 (seasonal factors). Intel's revenues in many areas, in fact, were lower than Q4 -- which is to be expected since holiday PC sales move more Intel product in general.
5:42pm -- Intel is planning on $8.2 to $8.5 billion in Q2 revenues based on projections and seasonality. Andy is now going over Q2 projections in decent detail, unless what many CFOs do when presenting recent quarter information. Kudos -- this will probably head off some analyst questions later.
5:46pm -- the analyst Q&A begins after what I would consider brief remarks. The first question: are ASPs (average selling prices) projected to go down in Q2? Andy states that a "competitive environment" has dented Intel in the past, but Intel is making much more progress than in 2006 and is positioned better right now to compete. He does not go into specifics with numbers, however.
5:48pm -- Andy launched into a self-described "speech" that starts breaking down a bunch of inventory and sales specifics for the last quarter. Nice -- this is what analysts love.
5:50pm -- the second question: what are Intel's startup costs for newer product lines? Andy goes into some small detail here, and gives another "speech" on details that contract Q1 to a projected Q2. Andy adds some startup costs in his answer as well.
5:53pm -- the next question: what is the revenue outlook for Q2? The projected 4% decline seems more than a seasonal decline. Andy says that there is no specific reason for a larger-than-normal projection decline, but he alludes to AMD as a possible reason in revenue declines. He almost says this directly (in a sense).
5:56pm -- the next analyst question: what will be the overall projected growth rate for the second half of the year? Andy answers that he can't go into a huge amount of granularity, but answers by stating that cutting overhead in factories are causing spending cuts. The question also deals with AMD's marketshare versus Intel's marketshare. Paul answers by saying that Intel had a "strong quarter" in the retail channel in Q1.
5:59pm -- the next question: what impact will Intel see as it transitions to the 45nm process in the second half of the year insofar as revenue. Andy goes over some details related to a new product's process launch (changing microprocessor die sizes) but does not go into specifics. Paul goes into detail about the 45nm ramp later this year as well.
6:04pm -- the next question: was notebook chip pricing in the last quarter flat or more weighted towards higher-end chips? Paul answers by going over how pricing was set in both the laptop and desktop market in Q1. Second question here: will Intel need to make pricing moves in the next quarter? Paul states that Intel will always need to move prices to drive product sales as newer products get onto the market.
6:06pm -- Intel has added about $900 million in inventory this quarter -- will Intel need to continue grow inventory in order to continue hurting AMD's sales. Andy answers by saying that the existing 65nm chip inventory gives Intel a cushion into the newer 45nm chip technology -- and it's planned this way.
6:10pm -- the next question comes in: was Intel behind in its 65nm/45nm transition in Q1 since it was supposed to start happening (in terms of OEM shipments) in Q4? Andy seems a little annoyed at this question, but does say that 45nm product is shipping to OEMs now for a May 2007 launch.
6:14pm -- the next question: how is Intel seeing the shift in server sales from dual-processor to quad-processor chip sales? Paul answers that MP sales (multi-processor) are changing a bit as dual processors with dual cores (4 cores) are popular for cost reasons. Some specific answers here talk about server deployments with the various numbers of chips (single core and dual-core) Intel ships. Paul then talks about when Windows Vista SP1 (expected Q4 f this year, Paul?) is released and how Intel will be affected.
6:16pm -- the next question: what are Intel's key differentiating factors in its product line. Paul answers that "performance per watt" is the measurement, although there are higher orders of specialization based on a chip's overall platform (product solution) instead of disconnected chip solutions.
6:20pm -- the next question comes in: can Intel maintain its lead in the server and high-end desktop sales with the impending release of a very competitive upcoming AMD chip release. Paul answers that AMD can better answer how competitive their new chips may be. Good call.
6:23pm -- the last question: are system integrators "flighty" in terms of taking in newer technology (new Intel chips), and could these folks go back to AMD chips once Intel's new chips start releasing its new 45nm chips in May? The answer: system integrators live and die by supporting their customers and that these folks will buy from Intel if their customers demand the best performance and the best price. Paul plugs his company here big-time, and for the most part he's very accurate here. System integrators are not "fly by night" operations.
6:26pm -- the final question: how is Intel's NAND business developing as Intel ramps up new facilities? Paul answers by saying that the NAND business in the last six months has been "extremely acute" recently, although some softening has happened in the last six weeks.
6:29pm -- that's it, folks. Intel's Q1 webcast concludes. Paul gives a brief closing statement and the call then ends. If you're an INTC shareholder, what do you think? Until then, we are outta here ;-)











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