Shares of Panera Bread Company (NASDAQ: PNRA) have pulled back since the company reported earnings in early April. The firm posted first-quarter earnings that were at the low end of its previous target of $0.47 to $0.50 per share -- that represented a slight discount to consensus analyst expectations. This announcement, coupled with a similar warning from PF Chang's China Bistro (NASDAQ: PFCB), sparked fears that a slowdown in consumer spending is starting to hit the fast-casual restaurant chains.
But Panera's problems are at least partly due to geography and weather. Specifically, PNRA is based in St. Louis and has a high concentration of locations in the Midwest. This region of the country has been hit with particularly severe winter weather on several occasions this year, and such storms drastically slow business.
This inclement weather was particularly problematic because of Panera's policy of using fresh dough for its breads and pizzas. Basically, this dough must be made fresh each morning and tossed out at the end of each day. Lighter store traffic leads to lost revenues and higher raw ingredients costs.
However, I believe the worst possible news is already priced into the stock. Even based on lowered estimates, PNRA is trading at roughly 20 times forward earnings, a slight discount to its +24% long-term growth rate. That's cheap for a high-quality growth stock like PNRA.
To see more analysis from Paul Tracy, visit www.streetauthority.com











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
4-20-2007 @ 3:57PM
john nardi said...
Where is the economy slowing down ? What the fuck are you all talking about !!!
4-20-2007 @ 5:44PM
joe kendelski said...
Count me in.
4-20-2007 @ 5:47PM
joe kendelski said...
What have you got on AKAM, also nucor (NUE)
4-20-2007 @ 7:05PM
justpicky said...
The midwest has slowed down. It depends on what area of the country you live to feel the effects.
I know Illinois , Missouri , Indiana , Michigan ,
and Ohio , who's feeling the biggest effect.
People are being laid off , so that means , they
aren't out spending money . Housing , slowed down
too ,what would take less than 6 months to sell a home , its taken over a year .
Many rest the country isnt feeling it , but these states are .
I like to know where are the jobs when all these people are laid off ??? There is none so these people are else living off unemployment , going back to college , spouse is working to make end meet , believe me , these people doesnt want to
live like this , they rather be working fulltime.
I have a brother in law who's been out of a job since Oct 31, he has mailed , email resumes , went out of his way just to found a job , he has never been laid off, he's the type of person who would love to work 12 - 16 hrs aday , 7 days aweek , he's a worker , that's the only way to get by.
What if your job closed do you've a plan ???
If Companies keep moving overseas , there will not be many jobs left .......
Companies aren't worried about you or your family , only thereselves.
good luck , you will need it too.