Panera Bread's pullback looks like an inviting entry point

Shares of Panera Bread Company (NASDAQ: PNRA) have pulled back since the company reported earnings in early April. The firm posted first-quarter earnings that were at the low end of its previous target of $0.47 to $0.50 per share -- that represented a slight discount to consensus analyst expectations. This announcement, coupled with a similar warning from PF Chang's China Bistro (NASDAQ: PFCB), sparked fears that a slowdown in consumer spending is starting to hit the fast-casual restaurant chains.

But Panera's problems are at least partly due to geography and weather. Specifically, PNRA is based in St. Louis and has a high concentration of locations in the Midwest. This region of the country has been hit with particularly severe winter weather on several occasions this year, and such storms drastically slow business.

This inclement weather was particularly problematic because of Panera's policy of using fresh dough for its breads and pizzas. Basically, this dough must be made fresh each morning and tossed out at the end of each day. Lighter store traffic leads to lost revenues and higher raw ingredients costs.

However, I believe the worst possible news is already priced into the stock. Even based on lowered estimates, PNRA is trading at roughly 20 times forward earnings, a slight discount to its +24% long-term growth rate. That's cheap for a high-quality growth stock like PNRA.

To see more analysis from Paul Tracy, visit www.streetauthority.com