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Dow 13,000/Google debate - some facts!

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Earlier today Douglas McIntyre posted Dow 13,000? -- Stocks to put in the dumpster. Then Georges Yared posted Rebuttal to Dow 13,000: Stocks for the dumpster which got me thinking about what the numbers say. What are the fundamentals? Do they matter? Georges is on record supporting Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) and Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) growth stories and Doug took them both down a notch today.

Before I even begin I must share that among my colleagues, I hold these two in the highest esteem. They offer market and stock opinions that are very worth considering and often give me ideas. Georges disagrees with Doug about Google being overpriced and the market has tended to agree with him. I think Doug however, is simply reminding investors that sometimes when such euphoria takes hold it might be worth taking pause. I often like to make my stock decisions on the week end when the market is closed for exactly this reason.

Since I am a value investor I would have a natural tendency to lean toward Doug's slant on the subject but the interesting thing to me is that nothing Georges has said is inaccurate. But what do the numbers tell us, if anything about these ideas.

Google Fundamentals:

Price/Earnings (TTM) 47.44
Price/Sales (TTM) 17.68
Price/Book (MRQ) 8.75
Price/Cash Flow (TTM) 53.0
Return on Equity (TTM) 23.11
Return on Assets (TTM) 21.41
Return on Investments (TTM) 23.26

The P/E has been coming down with each new quarterly report and I expect that to continue, but I would be concerned about another figure more. The P/S is too high at 17.68 and historically across all investment sectors this matters more. Where the P/E is approximately 3 times the market average and might be acceptable given Google's growth is also, I would be concerned about the P/S which is whacko! at 5 to 6 times (and 10 to 15 times my target) the average and not supported by its growth -- and I remind everyone that this is much more important than the P/E.

Comparing Apple's Fundamentals:

Price/Earnings (TTM) 34.18
Price/Sales (TTM) 4.3
Price/Book (MRQ) 7.65
Price/Cash Flow (TTM) 29.43
Return on Equity (TTM) 25.6
Return on Assets (TTM) 13.92
Return on Investments (TTM) 22.85

Apple has a high P/E also, and it too is supported by its growth, but look at the P/S of 4.3. In most cases I myself would not be investing in a stock with these numbers, but Apple is one that might be an exception. For those who have been reading my Chasing Value or Serious Money columns you know I have not recommended anything in this range. I often am looking at a P/S from 0.5 to 2.5 - but prefer 1.0 target.

So to me Google is in a scary range and I would think that while Georges is correct that Google has a bright future, I would agree with Doug today that Google is still overpriced and you may have a better buying opportunity in the spring or summer. Another way to look at this, is that today's price is based on so many people afraid the train is leaving without them, that I think you should give up your seat for them and catch the next one.

I would also argue that The P/CF, another better metric than than P/E is equally out of this world, and furthermore I am uncomfortable with a stock that has a P/E higher than it's ROE, ROA, or ROI. While Google's figures in this area are strong compared to other companies, compared to it's P/E which is double -- I have questions.

In looking at Apple it is harder to say that it is so overpriced at this juncture. Based on the already discussed metrics it seems to make more sense and I do not think it is as over priced as Google, but it too may be a better buy in the spring or summer.

There are exceptions to every rule but I think caution is in order. Google closed today at $482.48 up 2.3%; Apple closed at 90.97 up 0.78%.

Have a nice weekend.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. Check out his other posts for BloggingStocks here.

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Last updated: November 27, 2009: 02:46 AM

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