Warren Buffett's successor will be no Warren Buffett

This weekend's Wall Street Journal (subscription required) discussed the Oracle of Omaha's quest to find his successor as Chief Investment Officer of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A). Buffett joked that they will run the search "like American Idol" and said that he will be looking for someone who already knows how to do it, not an "apprentice."

Here's one of the most interesting tidbits: Warren Buffett says that he isn't impressed by titles and diplomas, and that a college education is not a requirement for the job. Here's what he's looking for: "independent thinking, emotional stability, and a keen understanding of both human and institutional behavior."

If that sounds like you, the rewards could be quite nice: Around 10% of the manager's earnings above that achieved by the S&P 500. But here's the thing: How likely is it that someone will be able to do that? In a 1996 letter to shareholders, Buffett wrote: "Most investors, both institutional and individual, will find that the best way to own common stocks is through an index fund that charges minimal fees. Those following this path are sure to beat the net results (after fees and expenses) delivered by the great majority of investment professionals."

While Buffett has delivered admirable results, I would argue that there can be no assurance his successor will be able to do the same. Given the size of Berkshire's portfolio, he may be better off putting the money in index funds after he retires. Buffett is one in 6.5 billion, and I doubt his successor will be another Warren Buffett.