Today's early rally brings the S&P 500 index a step closer to the March 24, 2000 record closing high of 1527.36. Despite all the hoopla, it's worth keeping in mind that the benchmark measure is essentially unchanged over the course of the past seven years.
Still, the round trip from the bubble's peak does mask a dramatic contrast in the fortunes of the index's 10 underlying sectors. For example, energy shares (which have an equivalent exchange-traded fund, or ETF (AMEX: XLE)) have more than doubled over the period, while the information technology group (AMEX: XLK) has lost nearly two-thirds of its value.
This should drive home the point that while moves in the major indices offer insights on the "pulse" of the overall market, it's often what occurs below the surface -- at the sector and individual share level -- that matters most to investors in the longer run.
Michael Panzner is a 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets and the author of Financial Armageddon: Protecting Your Future from Four Impending Catastrophes and The New Laws of the Stock Market Jungle: An Insider's Guide to Successful Investing in a Changing World.
Walmart's New Health Food Push: Is It Too Hard to Swallow?
Bonds Are a 'Safe' Investment: A Big Lie Gets Even Bigger


Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
5-03-2007 @ 8:48PM
susann said...
I am very scared. I'm just to unknowledgeable to understand what's going on in the stock market. I invested what is to me, a lot of money,with someone I trusted. So far, my trust was misplaced as 50,000.00 invested June 1, 2006 was worth 50,009.00 last night. He promised much greater returns and is earning a monthly comission % on my monthly account balance, not on the gain. His strategy? Bear funds on the dollar, bear on gold, and truly I goofed. But, still, I do not understand the stock market because real estate I really know. Mortgages, I really know. The stock market should be falling because the real estate market is intrinsically connected into the whole economy. Isn't it? Or am I wrong again. It's new materials and retreofit building materials, appliances, furniture, hardware, construction and remodeling labor,lawn and garden and outdoor furniture, bank mortgage interest earnings, lawyers, bank employees, appraisers, real estate agents, inspectors-their cash flow diminishes. Then when a seller cannot or doesn't want to sell, he/she still has a mortgage payment, but that just got higher while company/business/employer just lost revenue. Does he/she make the mortgage payment by cutting back somewhere, like higher priced groceries, maybe a cell phone, maybe cable,turn the heat thermostat down, use gas more cautiously, avoid the AC, stop buying clothes, shoes (we all have too much anyway by the size of closets from 1950's and pre-circa homes) restaurants, movies, all the things you used to think were necessities and we now realize we won't die without. But then all those above vendors of product and service have fewer dollars to spend and they still have high priced homes with high or higher mortgages. Don't they start running short? Only the gov is supposed to be printing $. Help me please. What am I missing here? Should I just sell and go back to my old tried and true strategy-boring to most-CD's?
The mortgage default rates, a known fact, are historically high. The defaults are not just in little starter homes anymore as the ARM's are beginning to invade middle bracket and upper bracket homes. In addition, I lied; I also gave this broker 73000.00 in IRA money a year ago, and that's barely holding on to the principal. And still he says "two steps forward, one step back." At this rate I should have nothing in about two years as "two steps forward, one step back" must mean something different to him than it does to me. Even getting out of it, though he claimed it was liquid, is a procedure that removes any sale price control from me. Am am sick, worried and just keep telling myself something I heard years ago: when the market gets irrationally high (which I think it is) all the stupid money is going in.
5-04-2007 @ 3:49PM
Michael Panzner said...
No one knows for sure what the future holds. Sometimes things don't work out, or they take longer than expected. Regardless, the key to being a successful investor is to develop a plan, engage in comprehensive research, learn from or work with those who are trustworthy and knowledgeable, and act accordingly. If you are uncomfortable with your current holdings, then you should reassess your position.