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Chasing down 007 picks: Index beats Cramer - value trumps growth

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This is an update through April 30, 2007 after many companies have reported their first quarter earnings and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJAI) passed the 13,000 watermark and set new record highs. We are still in the midst of earnings season. This is my fourth follow-up report. Not enough time to prove much but plenty of time to make or lose some money. If you want to refer to the original article from December 28, 2006 see: You don't have to be 007 to find the best picks for 2007!

This month an interesting trend took hold. Even with the indices reaching new highs and many stocks doing so as well, it seems there must be some caution in the wind. This is the first month that my value approach lead the pack and Cramer's approach, whatever it is, took a back seat. Not only is Cramer lagging each of the indices, but four of his six speculative and growth picks were down while all three of his value picks were up. Google seems to be dead in the water for now, having reported tremendous growth and beating analyst's guestimates again by a wide margin, it still has not gained any traction even in an up market.

Summary of Results:

  • My picks continued improving from last month's +0.14% for the quarter to +4.28% through April. Adding the dividend portion of (2.89% x .333) of .96% brings the total return to +5.24% tops to date. The picks were less volatile than last month with continued huge gains of 36% from Valero Energy (NYSE:VLO) and losses from PetroChina Co. (NYSE: PTR) which was at an all-time high when I mentioned it. Since last month my other Chinese stock Huaneng Power International ADS (NYSE: HNP) did an about face for a big gain.
  • The Indices all turned positive, with the DJIA leading the charge: +4.5%. Adding its portion of the dividend yield (1.8% x .333) of 0.6% brings it up to a total gain of +4.56% for the quarter. The average of the three indices was +4.21% + 0.6% equaling +4.27% for second place showing.
  • Jim Cramer's average return on his 9 picks was 2.82% after three months but now stands at: +3.41% an improvement. Adding the dividend portion (.66% x .333) of 0.22% brings Cramer's gain to +3.63%. His best pick by far (second only to VLO) is Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) which seems to be heading for another banner year.
  • Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) provided an +8.1% return in January, slipped to -2.9% in February and YTD has made only slight gains improving from -1.0% last month to +2% after the four months. It has been trading in a 10% range most of the year and is at the same price it was about 15 months ago.

I will continue to add the portional dividends to the results. This is one of the criteria I used in my stock picks and will have an impact on the final results. Only three of Cramer's picks pay dividends averaging about .66%; the Indices pay a higher average of 1.8%; my picks average still higher at about 2.89%; and Google does not pay a dividend. The flatter the market is this year the more the dividends will be a factor.

I remain very comfortable with all my stock picks; the "Tortoise" has passed "Hare" for now. It is my belief that 'Value' will beat 'Growth' and 'Indexing' over the long run. Google is a wild card! Two of my picks continue to be mentioned as buyout candidates; Dow Chemical Co. (NYSE: DOW) and Home Depot (NYSE: HD). Home Depot is receiving the most negative discussion in business circles these days but I see it as becoming a greater value at the lower price.

The following are the closing prices as of December 28, 2006 and four month returns for the seven stocks I recommended plus the addition of Spectra Energy that was spun out of Duke Energy (NYSE: DUK). Among Cramer's picks Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT) which was spun out of Altria, is included in the calculations

  1. The Dow Chemical Company: $40.02 is UP to 44.61 (+11.46%) 3.54% yield
  2. Duke Energy: $33.02 (incl. of Spectra Energry (NYSE: SE)) is UP to 33.57 (1.67%) 4.31 yield
  3. The Home Depot Inc.: $39.73 is Down to $37.87 (-4.68%) 2.31% yield
  4. Huaneng Power International ADS: $36.00 is UP to 40.59 (12.75%) 3.62% yield
  5. PetroChina ADR: $142.12 is Down to 112.14 (-21.1%) 4.5% yield
  6. Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) $22.00 is Down to $20.63 (-6.23%) 1.1% yield
  7. Valero Energy: $51.61 is UP to $70.23 (+36.08%) .84% yield

The following index comparisons are also from December 28, 2006 :

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: 12,501.52 is Up to 13,062.91 (+4.5%)
  • NASDAQ Composite Index: 2,425.57 is Up to 2,525.09 (+4.1%)
  • Standard & Poors 500 Index ($INX): 1,424.73 is Up to 1,482.37 (+4.04%)

1) Level 3 Communications (NASDAQ: LVLT) $5.66 is Down to $5.56 (-1.76%) No dividend
2) Rite Aid (NYSE: RAD) $5.49 is Up to $6.14 (+11.83%) No dividend
3) Savient Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: SVNT) $12.01 is Down to $11.50. (-4.24%) No dividend

The Cramer Growth Picks are:
1) New York Stock Exchange Group (NYSE: NYX) $97.51 Down to $84.33 (-13.52%) No dividend
2) Apple Inc. $80.87 UP to $99.80 (+23.41%) No dividend
3) Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO) $27.42 Down to $26.74 (-2.48%) No dividend

The Cramer Value Picks are:
1) Altria Group (NYSE: MO) $86.23 UP to $68.92 +(Kraft at .692024 x $33.47 = 23.16) to 92.08 (+6.78%) 4.12% Yield
2) Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS) $200.80 UP to $218.61 (+8.87%) .72% yield
3) Halliburton Co. (NYSE: HAL) $31.26 UP to $31.77 (1.82%) .97% Yield

I have been tracking Google since it is of broad interest as an investment, a company and as news. Google closed December 28, 2006 at $462.56. After rising initially in January it has been trading broadly between $440 and $480. Google reported terrific growth in earnings but only stimulated modest gains in share price ending the month at $471.38. for a YTD gain of (+2%). No dividend

I will be reporting again during the week following the closing stock prices each month.

Disclosure: I own shares of DUK, HNP, PTR, SE, TWX, and VLO.

Those of you who are new to Bloggingstocks.com can check out my other stories and read Chasing Value or Serious Money to find more potential opportunities and verify my track record as well.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. Check out his other posts for BloggingStocks here.

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Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+30.6910,464.40
NASDAQ+6.872,176.05
S&P 500+4.981,110.63

Last updated: November 26, 2009: 09:06 PM

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