Whole Foods Market Inc (NASDAQ: WFMI) is showing multiple signs it is not time to jump into this stock, yet. Comp sales are slowing while costs are increasing--a margin squeeze which could be with the company for a while.Comparable store sales grew 6% which appears solid considering it came off a 12% increase in the prior year. However, it was below the 8% to 10% long-term goal Whole Foods has been targeting.
Private label grew 16%, which is another sign of increased competition. A&P, plus others, are coming out with some nice remodelings which can compete against Whole Foods. Also, one must remember, the organic food company sells expensive stuff, although that has not dissuaded consumers in the past.
Another sign of growth moderation is that average transactions per week increased approximately three percent to 3.4 million, and average basket size increased approximately three percent to $34.
Overall, Whole Foods is a company that can still make a lot of money for investors when its increased investment in new store opening proves fruitful. Wait for management to indicate margins have bottomed and comps are about to ramp after the new-store openings begin to show up in results.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
5-10-2007 @ 3:22PM
Lisa said...
This is a really good example of where "shoeleather research" can provide good insight. Whole Foods is/was supposedly coming to my area. They started remodeling a vacant Shopko store in a strip mall, but given the rate at which remodels and new construction go up in this town, there's something amiss. The building is still gutted, and there is very little sign of activity. There is a Wild Oats Market in town, and it was scheduled to relocate into a former Good Guys store. That's clearly not happening, either, because the marquee sign and the banner at the former Good Guys are both gone. The old store remains open.
Still, the lack of movement forward says something, and it doesn't say "buy WFMI now". WFMI is still on my potential buy list, but I'm not going to consider buying UNTIL the new Whole Foods store has been open for a good 6 months and I've had a chance to go inside and look around several times.
In retail, shoeleather research has invariably paid off for me. Poor employee morale shows. Poor management policies show. Conversely, good employee morale and good management policies are equally visible, even on a series of casual visits.
5-11-2007 @ 9:38AM
Linda Milligan said...
I agree about shoeleather, but the comment gave me pause since I just bought Whole Foods stock based on my own first hand experience of a store that opened about a year ago in my community. I love the place, and so do a lot of other people, which is a good indicator. I trust the quality food, which has become increasingly important to me. I love the fact that I know what I am buying. They post where all the produce comes from and whether or not it is organic. I love the displays and the creative outlet offered to the employees who compete with their prepared samples every Monday evening, traditionally a slow evening for grocers. The employees seem happy and enthusiastic, which indicates good management. I am very proud to be a stockholder. But what I realized from the perceptions of shoeleather is that my personal experience might be too limited to judge the whole company.
5-12-2007 @ 11:11PM
Brad Houchen said...
I feel strongly about doing your own on location research. I was recently in a Whole Foods in downtown Chicago and was amazed at the traffic, atmosphere and the overall morale of the staff. It felt good to be in that store. I checked out a local competitor and will leave my comments to myself. Great leadership and focus on employee satisfaction will continue to help this company grow and ensure they are #1 in service.
5-14-2007 @ 10:22PM
Gemma Star said...
I'm a stockholder AND I've done extensive shoe leather research on Whole Food Stores in three states and four cities (almost ten stores.)
WFMI management seems to know what it's doing in all the stores. I trust the food and, if I've ever had problems (always minor) I enjoyed immediate consideration and the matter was always promptly and favorably resolved.
That said, I suspect that the price of the stock is going to be under pressure for a while to come. I already own more than I want to own and I have a small loss. I'm considering selling some of my current shares (at a loss) to offset other gains in other stocks and, at the same time, repurchasing new shares at a lower price. I'll incur transaction costs, of course, but I'll end up with the same number of shares at a lower price and have losses to offset gains elsewhere.
5-30-2007 @ 7:27PM
esta said...
I first purchased WFMI yrs ago: it was the most expensive store in the area and packed with customers all the time. Service was great, food as well. I sold off half the stock once the price doubled; it then split and I rebought at the lower price. Which was still around $70. then suddenly: Kaboom !!! What happened? I still don't understand why the bottom dropped out...any answers?