Investors make mistakes every day. If they didn't we'd all be as rich as Warren Buffett and we're not.
Here's a list of six such mistakes:
- Follow hot tips. As a blogger on AOL's BloggingStocks, I know that some of the most popular posts are the ones that repeat what Jim Cramer said on his TV show five minutes before the post appears on the blog. The reason these posts are so popular is because lots of people are Cramer Ditto Heads (CDHs). He tells them what to do and they do it. While some use Cramer as a starting point for further research, many are too willing to be led and are not inclined to do their own research.
- Don't know how to research fundamentals. One of the reasons people don't do their own research is because they don't know how. Specifically, one kind of research many people don't know how to do is understanding how a company -- whose stock someone wants to buy -- fits within its industry. Many people would not know how to begin answering fundamental questions such as: Is the industry profitable? Why? How is that profitability likely to evolve? What is the company's market share? If it's a leader, can it sustain that leadership? If it's behind can it catch up? What kind of cash flow does the business generate? How much cash flow is it likely to sustain in the future? Does the market recognize these future cash flows in its price?
- Don't know how to analyze technicals. Many times fundamentals have nothing to do with how a stock performs. For example, in December 2003, Martha Stewart Omnimedia Inc. (NYSE: MSO) stock started going up from $9 when its Home & Garden Television (HGTV) show was taken off the air to $36 in February 2005 when Martha Stewart got out of jail. During that time the company saw its revenues shrink 20% a year and its losses skyrocket. The reason the stock went up is a mystery. But I thought people who were loyal Martha Stewart Ditto Heads (MSDHs) bought MSO as a show of support. Many investors do not know how to analyze money flows that would provide clues to what is driving a stock up or down. This can cause them to buy when they should be selling, or sell when they should be buying.
- Don't set stop losses. Many investors buy a stock and assume that they must own it for years because Warren Buffett is a buy-and-hold investor or for some other reason. This despite the fact that sometimes when a stock goes below the price at which an investor purchased it, it will never return to that initial price. Since nobody can predict where a stock will go, it makes sense to set a stop loss, at a price that is 2% or 5% below the price that the investor bought in. While such as stop loss can certainly stop investors from gaining if the stock recovers, it will definitely keep them from losing more than the stop loss percentage once the stock has been sold.
- Don't set target sell prices. Similarly, many investors hold on to their gains too long because they keep hoping that the stock will go higher. This reminds me of the phrase that bulls make money and bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered. While it is hard to let go of a stock that has made money, it is definitely profitable. The biggest challenge is overcoming the emotional barrier associated with giving up on the possible lost opportunity of making even more money by holding on.
- Ignore reality due to confirmation bias. Confirmation bias is a decision-maker's tendency to embrace information consistent with his or her expectations and to reject inconsistent information. Confirmation bias is quite common among investors. In mid-September 2001, I commented in a newspaper that an unprofitable fiber optic network carrier, Williams Communications Group, was likely to go bankrupt. This prompted an e-mail from a holder of the stock suggesting that I take my family on an airplane and hoping that the plane would crash. When I e-mailed this person the evidence on which I based my conclusion, he replied -- sans apology -- that my argument was compelling. His initial response was evidence of confirmation bias and his second response showed he was capable of rational thought -- and extremely impolite.
Do you agree or disagree? What investment mistakes have I missed?
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates, a management consulting and venture capital firm. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned in this post.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
5-11-2007 @ 6:47PM
V. Crainich said...
Boy did you ever hit the 'nail on the head'. I bought Delta stock--right after 9/11--when the stock-like all airline stocks plunged dramatically. My problem was..I was the pig that got slaughtered..by not selling it whenit later increased all the way up $40.00..but then..following it all the way down to bankruptcy.
It was a costly lesson learned. Now, I set price points (actually % increases) and cry about selling the stock high...all the way to the bank.
5-11-2007 @ 7:21PM
Sue said...
I followed Cramer and bought some Lucent stock, bad mistake, still waiting for it to go up.
Sue
5-11-2007 @ 10:17PM
Micah said...
Never trust the stocks or ever try to invest in those stocks cuz they all are risky !!! It is better to have your own business than doing those investment and end up in loss worse !
5-12-2007 @ 12:17AM
brettze said...
Peter Cohan,
You can almost wrtie any way an investor can make money. There is so many different approaches to investing in stocks. You can pick a stock based on one approach and another on another approach. Take Peter Lynch , he has his own approach(s) as he explained at Louis Rukeyser's (rest his soul) Wall Street Week on PBS. Peter Lynch made it sounds so easy, which is not always true. Another is just picking a stock and keep on riding on it trying to catch its lows and highs (timing) that can make money as long as the stock is well managed. Some stocks just keep on climbing and climbing, yet they are still hard to spot because you see them day by day which is hard to assemble together. If yo dont have time to do research, you can really look and find a full commissioned broker who really like you and is willing to give you good stock tips. Such brokers might like investors who have nice kids and well groomed homes plus a steady professional career. If you are a Joe Six Pack, dont bother asking a full commissioned broker for help... You are pretty much on your own.. Wall Street is nothing but a bunch of hobnob snooty nosed people!!
5-12-2007 @ 1:47AM
John said...
I was with Peter until he started talking about stop losses. I guess if you are treating the market like a casino that is what you would do, but I believe it makes more sense to purchase the entire market in the first place at a low cost index fund. If you must buy individual stocks you should stick with companies that are earning a profit and paying a dividend, anything else is speculative. If you treat the market like a casino, then you will over time under perform the market by at least your cost of investing and don't forget the short term capital gains taxes BoooYaaah!!!
5-12-2007 @ 6:29AM
bob vichinsky said...
all real good guidelines. I would add two more.... buying a stock that pays a dividend and then not having the dividend reinvested via a drip. 2nd having a broker where the commission is high and you end up being afraid to buy or sell due to high cost.
5-12-2007 @ 9:37AM
Stanley said...
So what is the best book or other source to learn how to do the research you list in items 2 and 3?
5-12-2007 @ 9:51AM
EMIL J KOVACH JR said...
Some Of Mr Rukeyser's FAMOUS Lines:
"If EVERYBODY Says It's Going Up..It's Probably Going Down"
"Everytime A Stock Is Sold..Someone Thinks the Price Is To High...And Someone Thinks It's Too Low"
"The Same Exact News..Can Make The Stock Market Go Up...And A Week Later Make It Go Down"
"And Exactly How Long...Is Long Term Investing?"
"They Don't Call it Insider Trading For Nothing"
EMIL J KOVACH JR
5-12-2007 @ 10:24AM
Lanny said...
If crammer had to go up against a monkey with a dart each week on one of his picks..once the monkey won two weeks in a row..it wouldnt matter what crammer recommended ..the public would be betting with the monkey..
5-12-2007 @ 10:27AM
harlondo3 said...
If Crammer was forced to compete against a monkey with a dart each week, and the monkey's picks beat Crammers two weeks in a row,by the third week all of the viewers would be buying stocks based on the monkeys picks.
5-12-2007 @ 11:17AM
GUMBO said...
I read commentators or analysts to see what they are covering today. I find them useful only for introducing stocks that I never thought of or never heard of. From there, I take over and do my own analysis on those picks they made. Or I sometimes reply to them with very insulting and defecating remarks if I find their opinions to be lacking in comprehensiveness. I detest shallow, shrill and overreactive coverages made by them. I think they have no business in doing that although it is a free speech right. Readers got to take everything with a grain of salt. I will continue to make insulting and rephrensive replies to any commentator or analyst until they improve their tabloid like cheapshots...
5-12-2007 @ 11:17AM
GUMBO said...
If anyone tune in Jim Cramer's shows, he would be confused immediately. Jim Cramer has no sensible programming unlike Louis Rukeyser's Wall Street Week for example. There has to be a better format for Jim Cramer to use. He can keep his screams and pissings for all I care, but I watch him and shake my head a little. He is like a loose cannon.. He jumps here and there and get lost somewhere in the boonies!! He doesnt offer depth but shallow sport-level talks. If you want to follow his tips, you would have to watch him everyday to catch his sell pissings on stocks that he recommneds as scream buys a couple weeks ago. If you miss, bye ...
5-12-2007 @ 11:54AM
Pat said...
I would like to add don't put all your investment dollars into one stock.
5-12-2007 @ 1:13PM
ANNE said...
Hi, very interesting comments. I rather like Kramer and many of his recommendations really do go up. However be advised that we little people must pay our brokers commisions and it would not pay us to do as he does, however keep a set plan buy only when there is a dividend and your plan has a goal not just hither and yon buying and selling, it does pay to have a broker who knows you and your goals. Anne
5-12-2007 @ 1:52PM
jresh said...
FIrst and foremost, Jim Cramer is a great entertainer! He tells his viewers time and time again to do their homework before buying any stock! That has to be rule number one! You don't buy a stock just because someone says it might be a good idea. If you do and get burned, it's your own fault for being a lazy investor! There are no guarantees. If there were, we'd all buy low and sell high. It's tough to sell off a portion of a good stock when it's in nosebleed territory, but what he says is true. Pigs do get slaughtered!
5-12-2007 @ 3:05PM
David said...
My daddy always told me to make sure any stock I bought had 4 legs and made mooo or oink sounds. Worst case on the downside is that you can serve it for dinner.
5-12-2007 @ 8:32PM
Garrett said...
I went with Cramer in late 2003 early 2004, LOST $30K in 3 months, action alerts was driving me crazy, started with $300K sold a few months in for $270K, Don't follow this guy, I now have a Merril Lynch account. I pay about 18K a year in a managed (1-2%) of account balance, account, I sleep at night , don't watch CNBC constantly, and have made more money than before.
5-13-2007 @ 8:02AM
lee tabin said...
I do not agree that one sells a stock "because it goes up to a certain extent," if that is what you are saying. Your comments were unclear. A stock is sold when the FUNDAMENTALS change. you'd look pretty dumb having sold walmart or paychex or a whole bunch of others because they doubled.
As to the Dems doing better than Repubs. I think what you said is simply untrue period. You have to take into account the makeup of congress for one thing. No one in their right mind would say that Bush had a bad economic performance and Carter or Johnson a good one. Obviously you are a Democrat.
Lowering capital gains taxes and lowering taxes in general are what makes our economy better. Johnson destroyed a good economy and you seem to give Carter a pass on inflation. Clinton did some good things, particularly in trade, but the only reason he had a surplus (which Bush is rapidly moving toward sans the headlines of any Democrat) is because of the dotcom bubble.
I do agree about much of what you say.
5-13-2007 @ 8:04AM
lee tabin said...
Most people should buy index funds. no?
5-13-2007 @ 9:10AM
Michael Schneider said...
It's interesting to read the responses here on the various words from experience. I would note that these things change and sometimes what is good experience turns into bad advice- like "Don't play takeovers", something that was good advice earlier but now harmful to money-making (In a very recent item posted in the (blue label) Weekly Stock Digest at http://www.Barrelomoney.com, noted Forbes columnist and author Ken Fisher recommends putting a lot on takeovers). If conditions change it is sometimes good to go with the flow, at least for awhile, rather than your past experience which is limited and may reflect different market or economic conditions. On the other hand, if you study your own transactions you can find things that you may not have seen before. Back in the 1980s, I analyzed my portfolios and saw that a good percentage of profit was coming from dividends (this has been a general truth for investors) so I made that a more important factor in selecting stocks. In the 1990s though the best stocks to be in were the net stocks not dividend payers- until the party came to an end.
Many comments here are down on Jim Cramer but I have made more money on his picks than I lost and he has made many good calls. I can see how you can lose money following him though if you don't have some of your own analysis in the game because he has many risky stocks and sometimes tells people to "Buy high and sell higher" a risky strategy if the market turns down. The point is that you have to put some thought into what you are doing.