Investors make mistakes every day. If they didn't we'd all be as rich as Warren Buffett and we're not.
Here's a list of six such mistakes:
- Follow hot tips. As a blogger on AOL's BloggingStocks, I know that some of the most popular posts are the ones that repeat what Jim Cramer said on his TV show five minutes before the post appears on the blog. The reason these posts are so popular is because lots of people are Cramer Ditto Heads (CDHs). He tells them what to do and they do it. While some use Cramer as a starting point for further research, many are too willing to be led and are not inclined to do their own research.
- Don't know how to research fundamentals. One of the reasons people don't do their own research is because they don't know how. Specifically, one kind of research many people don't know how to do is understanding how a company -- whose stock someone wants to buy -- fits within its industry. Many people would not know how to begin answering fundamental questions such as: Is the industry profitable? Why? How is that profitability likely to evolve? What is the company's market share? If it's a leader, can it sustain that leadership? If it's behind can it catch up? What kind of cash flow does the business generate? How much cash flow is it likely to sustain in the future? Does the market recognize these future cash flows in its price?
- Don't know how to analyze technicals. Many times fundamentals have nothing to do with how a stock performs. For example, in December 2003, Martha Stewart Omnimedia Inc. (NYSE: MSO) stock started going up from $9 when its Home & Garden Television (HGTV) show was taken off the air to $36 in February 2005 when Martha Stewart got out of jail. During that time the company saw its revenues shrink 20% a year and its losses skyrocket. The reason the stock went up is a mystery. But I thought people who were loyal Martha Stewart Ditto Heads (MSDHs) bought MSO as a show of support. Many investors do not know how to analyze money flows that would provide clues to what is driving a stock up or down. This can cause them to buy when they should be selling, or sell when they should be buying.
- Don't set stop losses. Many investors buy a stock and assume that they must own it for years because Warren Buffett is a buy-and-hold investor or for some other reason. This despite the fact that sometimes when a stock goes below the price at which an investor purchased it, it will never return to that initial price. Since nobody can predict where a stock will go, it makes sense to set a stop loss, at a price that is 2% or 5% below the price that the investor bought in. While such as stop loss can certainly stop investors from gaining if the stock recovers, it will definitely keep them from losing more than the stop loss percentage once the stock has been sold.
- Don't set target sell prices. Similarly, many investors hold on to their gains too long because they keep hoping that the stock will go higher. This reminds me of the phrase that bulls make money and bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered. While it is hard to let go of a stock that has made money, it is definitely profitable. The biggest challenge is overcoming the emotional barrier associated with giving up on the possible lost opportunity of making even more money by holding on.
- Ignore reality due to confirmation bias. Confirmation bias is a decision-maker's tendency to embrace information consistent with his or her expectations and to reject inconsistent information. Confirmation bias is quite common among investors. In mid-September 2001, I commented in a newspaper that an unprofitable fiber optic network carrier, Williams Communications Group, was likely to go bankrupt. This prompted an e-mail from a holder of the stock suggesting that I take my family on an airplane and hoping that the plane would crash. When I e-mailed this person the evidence on which I based my conclusion, he replied -- sans apology -- that my argument was compelling. His initial response was evidence of confirmation bias and his second response showed he was capable of rational thought -- and extremely impolite.
Do you agree or disagree? What investment mistakes have I missed?
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates, a management consulting and venture capital firm. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned in this post.
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Reader Comments (Page 2 of 2)
5-13-2007 @ 8:04AM
lee tabin said...
Most people should buy index funds. no?
5-13-2007 @ 9:10AM
Michael Schneider said...
It's interesting to read the responses here on the various words from experience. I would note that these things change and sometimes what is good experience turns into bad advice- like "Don't play takeovers", something that was good advice earlier but now harmful to money-making (In a very recent item posted in the (blue label) Weekly Stock Digest at http://www.Barrelomoney.com, noted Forbes columnist and author Ken Fisher recommends putting a lot on takeovers). If conditions change it is sometimes good to go with the flow, at least for awhile, rather than your past experience which is limited and may reflect different market or economic conditions. On the other hand, if you study your own transactions you can find things that you may not have seen before. Back in the 1980s, I analyzed my portfolios and saw that a good percentage of profit was coming from dividends (this has been a general truth for investors) so I made that a more important factor in selecting stocks. In the 1990s though the best stocks to be in were the net stocks not dividend payers- until the party came to an end.
Many comments here are down on Jim Cramer but I have made more money on his picks than I lost and he has made many good calls. I can see how you can lose money following him though if you don't have some of your own analysis in the game because he has many risky stocks and sometimes tells people to "Buy high and sell higher" a risky strategy if the market turns down. The point is that you have to put some thought into what you are doing.
5-13-2007 @ 10:46AM
david said...
I study Jim Cramer and find he is very poor at making mad money for his viewers , he picks a stock to help raise his trust funds, also to date he is only up 2% from his picks , not very good.
dave
5-13-2007 @ 10:53AM
Connie said...
I take the stock picks Cramer gives and do my homework like he says. I've done really well with the ATI & GS picks. He's doesn't like VLO, but I've had that stock since 2001 and have made lots of money with it$ No ones right 100% of the time in their picks, if they were, we'd all be rich$$ At least he gets people interested in investing!
5-13-2007 @ 9:18PM
Donny said...
I watch Cramer for 3 reasons.
# 1 He is a true entertainer and its a good exercise in concentration..
# 2 He has some good reasoning in his talk if you listen carefully.
# 3 Some of his picks actually go up (most in fact)if you watch list them..I have been watching for years... I make money on the averages..
The critics should be so dumb..
5-13-2007 @ 1:56PM
El Fraley said...
You watch Cramer to listen and learn how the market really works and what drives equity prices.He gives great insights into the minds of traders-professional trading is an entirely different world and foreign to the average investor. The select issues I have bought on his recommendations have, on balance, made a lot of money.He is better in an up market than a down market. It surprises me that he does not discuss more the use of stop lossses. I always let some time pass before buying. I have used his principles of investing to make money in other areas and his advice about being diversified is superb.People pay lip service to diversification but do not do the homework to make sure they are diversified.Cramer has made me focus more in that area.I'd rather listen to someone who has made it big as an investor than most customer's men/women at any broker I have found.Many of the knocks on Cramer are not justified unless you are an investor-lemming chimera.
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5-13-2007 @ 4:50PM
Ron said...
I started with Cramer last year, seven out of ten suggestions have paid off for me. Research, does pay off. Re:fwlt
5-13-2007 @ 5:42PM
Dave said...
Cramer did something right making more money than most in the hardest times of the market.
I think if you do your homework as he always suggests, the stock plays are good.
He is only trying to give you a jump start on small to large stocks.
I personally like blue chips.
The only gamble taken this year AFTER Cramer's thumbs up was MA.
I wish I bought more.
5-13-2007 @ 8:15PM
Trent said...
Well taking advise from some television personality is dumb all the way if it is Jim Cramer Peter Lynch or Louis Rukeyser who im pretty sure would't be a guy to take advice from at this point of his life with his health problems. The reason we watch is for the entertainment value period. If you work with a broker or are a do it your selfer online if you make money in the market no reason to knock it if it works it works. But if you are a do it yourselfer because you are too proud or cheep to hire a broker then you deserve to continue to loose money in the market. Personally is use a full service broker and have averaged well over 16% per year the last 4 years better thank trading stocks on ebay and holding my TRow, Schwab, and Fidelity funds that are not performing. Reading books from Peter Lynch I think wouldn't be helpful either since he is no longer a active money manager I think he is retired but he had a nice run with the Magellen Fund but that was over 20 years ago things have changed since his day of buying stocks and bonds.
5-14-2007 @ 1:59PM
Lisa said...
I don't agree with setting buy and sell limits, because it can lead to too much trading and therefore too much money lost to commissions. I prefer to buy good, dividend-paying stocks and hold on to them for the very long term. So far, my strategy has served me well.