Sony's hard-to-hit target

In all the excitement about Sony Corp. (NYSE: SNE) doing much better during the current fiscal year, which ends next March, one of the details about the company's forecast may have been lost. Sony has to double the number of Playstation 3s that its sells. The fiscal year total will have to be 11 million, up from the 5.5 million that the company shipped last year. If Sony hits that number, the game division still loses over $400 million, but that will be about one-fifth of what it lost last year.

Making the forecast may be very hard. Some game industry analysts believe Sony will be aided by the number of new games coming out in 2007. But the Microsoft (NYSE: MSFT) Xbox and Nintendo Wii still outsell Xbox in most markets. And Microsoft will introduce the new version of its popular Halo game in September. That should push Xbox sales up further.

NPD Group, which tracks game console sales, claims that Sony sold about 500,000 PS3 units in the US in the first calendar quarter. That compares to over 1 million units for the Wii and 721,000 Xbox 360s.

According to Bloomberg, "Sony Corp. and video-game publishers will introduce 34 titles for the PlayStation 3 console in the next year as the company rebuilds sales in the money-losing unit." But bringing the games to market does not mean that they will sell. The PS3 is still expensive, selling for as much as $600.

Much of investor enthusiasm for Sony's shares is built around a recovery in its gaming business, and that is far from assured.

Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.