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The Top 25 Stocks for the NEXT 25 years: Crocs (that's right...Crocs)

The NEXT stock on my list of top 25 stocks for the NEXT 25 years is Crocs (NASDAQ: CROX). I hesitated on this company because I have been following it very closely since its IPO in early 2006 and have been recommending it to my members on my web site since the shares traded at $44. Currently Crocs is at $74-75 sporting a market capitalization of $2.9 billion. This company however has the opportunity to be a major global player in the footwear and apparel industries.

Also from Georges Yared: Crocs is the next Nike

Crocs manufactures its unique footwear from specialty resins that allows for the foot to breath and experience self-molded comfort. Yet, the shoes sell for $29.99 to $59.99 at the retail level. The shoes are unique in design and are offered in bold, dramatic colors. Crocs shoes appeal to toddlers to the elderly, across all demographic lines and in almost all geographies. What makes Crocs so dynamic is its distribution model. Although the company only operates about 100 self-serve kiosks, the other avenues of distribution are over 24,000: 11,500 in the United States and 13,500 in the rest of the world. The company also operates a dynamic web site allowing direct customer purchases at, of course, higher margins.

Crocs has successfully entered the fashion-forward university market with over 100 license agreements signed. It has inked agreements with the NFL and the NHL as well. Because the specialty resins are applicable for other products, Crocs is marketing unique products for kayaks and canoes to scuba diving fins.

Crocs offers a line of t-shirts, sweatshirts and other cool apparel as well as Jibbitzs, which appeals to children. Jibbitz are little attachments that kids love to "fill in the holes" of their Crocs shoes. They come in various cartoon and television characters. Crocs also sells wristbands, school backpacks, coffee mugs and many other interesting and unique products.

The story of Crocs lies within its margins. The company has already achieved operating margins in the mid 20's% with room to expand them even more. It is a highly profitable company which is unique for such an early-stage high growth concept. Crocs is determined to keep its product line fresh, hip and cutting-edge. The company has no intention of being viewed as a fad as fads can disappear as quickly as they appear. Crocs wants to model itself after NIKE (NYSE: NKE), which has stood the test of time and remained relevant for over 30 years.

Crocs has a long way to go before it is considered the "next Nike," but the company is well on its way. Revenues for 2007 I estimate at $615 million with earnings per share at about $2.90-2.95. For 2008 I estimate revenues at $800 million and earnings per share at $3.70. For a footwear/apparel vendor to have such high ,and more importantly, sustainable operating margins in the 20's%+, the valuation of Crocs will always command a generous and deserved higher PE ratio. The stock is trading at a 20 PE to 2008 estimates and is still not fully valued. With its accelerated growth rate Crocs' stock price could be justified with a 25-30 times forward PE ratio.

Crocs is on the list of 25 best stocks for the NEXT 25 years because of its global strength and excellent management team. By the way, if you have not tried a pair...try em!! I just got two pair from my kids for my birthday (age not relevant!) and I love them...

Georges Yared is the CIO of Yared Investment Research. For more growth stock ideas please visit the web site.

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Last updated: October 13, 2008: 12:46 AM

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