Illegal insider trading has been rather active recently. When an offer was made for Dow Jones (NYSE: DJ) by News Corp (NYSE: NWS), I mentioned some odd option activity. It wasn't long before the SEC was investigating and a Hong Kong couple was investigated. Some estimates of the insider trading show that about 50% of buyouts and mergers have illegal activity.
This morning aQuantive (NASDAQ: AQNT) is up about 77% to 63.64 on a buyout from Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT). It took me about 5 minutes to dig up some "unusual" activity. If you look at the June 40 calls (QBT FH) there is some "interesting activity."
A call option gives the purchaser the right (or option) to buy a stock at a set price. Each option contract gives the right to buy 100 shares of stock. For easy comparison to stock prices, option prices are always quoted in cents per share.
For example, if yesterday you thought the AQNT stock was going to rise above 35.87, you might have gone out and bought the June 40 call. That would have given you the right to buy the stock at $40 any time before June 15th. The option would have cost you 60 cents. Of course if the stock stays at $35 the right to buy the stock at 40 isn't worth much. But when the stock shoots up to $63 then you can buy the stock at $40 and sell it at $63. That is a $23 dollar profit. And it only cost 60 cents to buy the option, so it is around a 3,700% return.
So how many contracts traded yesterday on the 40 strike? 3,009 contracts. But to be fair we need to compare that to the number that traded the day before, which was 28 contracts. Hmmm. Something smell fishy? The option activity for the prior 20 trading days ranged form 0 to 654 and averaged 96 contracts a day. To save you the math... if you spent $180,540 to buy 3,009 contracts yesterday you would have $6.74 million today. I can't say for sure this is illegal activity; but it sure has all the tell-tale signs.
Before you try this there is a catch. If you know the stock is going to go up (from inside information); it is blatantly illegal. They can hunt you down and send you to jail. So you had better hope you can be fast with those money transfers and have the jet ready to escape to a warm tropical country where you will stay for a long time.
Kevin Kersten is an Options Analyst with InvestorsObserver.com. Disclosure note: Mr. Kersten owns and or controls a diversified portfolios of long and short positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
5-18-2007 @ 5:45PM
Paul Bucalo said...
There's a great profile of CEO Brian McAndrews with details about the company on www.washingtonceo.com:
http://washingtonceo.com/index.php?id=90&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=759&tx_ttnews[backPid]=103&cHash=b863026d8a
7-05-2007 @ 3:16PM
Cushman said...
Add HLT to that illegal trade list..... Will be interesting to see if its made an example being Hilton as in Paris Hilton but doubtful. This SEC could care less about what the big boys do they just after the little guys.