It seems like a distant memory, but in February 2007 the Dow fell 416 points. The alleged trigger was a 9% decline in the Shanghai Stock Market. And according to the Wall Street Journal [subscription required], Shanghai's market runs on superstition -- specifically, Chinese investors buy stocks associated with the number 8.
What am I talking about? Last year, Yan Caigen bought 30,000 shares of a cement company because of its lucky ticker code, 600881, which contains a double-eight. Yan's shares in the cement company, Jilin Yatai (Group) Co., promptly tripled, earning him about $50,000. Yan believes that the two "8s" in its ticker symbol were the good luck charm that made him money.
This would be nothing more than a curious cultural artifact were it not for a fundamental difference between the U.S. and Chinese markets. While in the U.S., most trading is conducted by sophisticated institutions; in China, individuals like Yan, often with little understanding of financial concepts, make up 60% to 80% of trading. How do these individual "investors" gamble on numerical superstition?
In China, there is a belief that the words for numbers -- such as one through nine -- have dual meanings. Specifically, based on their pronunciation in Mandarin, here are the meanings of homonyms of the first nine digits:
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Together, want
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Love, easy
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Earn, live
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Death
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Me, not
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Smooth
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Together
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Fortune, wealth
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Long time
Based on these meanings, it's fairly clear that stocks whose ticker codes contain '4' would be avoided -- I know that flight numbers going to or from China do not contain '4s' and I'd assume that just as Chinese would not want to fly a plane with death in its number they wouldn't want to invest in death either. By contrast -- stocks with '8's and '9's together might be considered likely to go up -- since long-lived wealth would be thought of as a good investment.
But it is a bit scary to contemplate what would happen if there was a change in the way Chinese investors decided which stocks to buy and sell. For instance, what would happen if China decided to require public companies to report accurate and timely financial data and provide realistic guidance on their financial prospects? If a company with '88' in its ticker code was losing money and forecast to lose even more, would Chinese investors dump the shares or hold on?
And this is not just academic speculation. If the Chinese government wants to attract more institutional investment into the Shanghai market, it will probably need to require public companies to provide rigorous financial disclosure. As I suggested above, such disclosure could have negative consequences. And with the Shanghai market up 50% this year and China owning $350 billion worth of U.S. government securities, a market reversal could encourage China to sell its U.S. holdings to cover the losses of its citizens in order to stave off social unrest.
Here are lyrics to The Song of the Stock Market which is circulating on the Internet:
Arise
Ye who haven't got stock accounts!
Invest all your money in the bull market;
The Chinese people have reached the most crazy moment,
Everyone with enthusiasm shouts the shout of buying.
"Arise, Arise, Arise!"
Our millions of people are of one mind, cherishing the dream of overnight wealth.
March on! March on! March on!
Arise,
Ye who do not want to be poor,
To build our Great Wall of stock with our blood money
The Chinese people are experiencing the most crazy market,
Everyone with jealousy shouts the crazy shout.
March on! March on! March on!
United we buy, without considering the risk of being trapped.
March on! March on! March on!
For the sake of the entire world, I just hope Shanghai's investors are not marching off a cliff.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates, a management consulting and venture capital firm. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
5-27-2007 @ 12:53PM
Michael Schneider said...
Thanks for a great posting.
The Wall Street Journal article was very nice as an overview of the role of "luck" or "fate" in Chinese decision-making about stocks. There is much to deal with however-- I have seen the "9" referred to as a lucky number by Chinese but also as a very unlucky number (the ultimate in frustration because it is close to but it is not "10"). Using such numbers to choose stocks seems strange but it is not unusual in the US to find people who use luck and fate in gambling and in buying lottery tickets. And we also have peculiarities. In the US, people like to buy round lots for example and shun odd lots even though buying a odd lot of a stock like Google or Berkshire Hathaway may make more sense than a round lot of a lesser company. Charles Payne this week on one of the Fox Business block shows (synopses of all 4 shows are available right now free in the Weekend Stock Review at http://www.Barrelomoney.com) said that he thinks stocks over $100 are undervalued and those under $100 are relatively overvalued because of our avoidance of stocks that trade at high numbers.
The Shanghai market indeed seems overvalued to most experts. However, investors such as Jim Rogers (see Channeling Jim Rogers section at htpp://www.Barrelomoney.com-- latest item posted) and Marc Faber (htpp://www.Barreloworld.com--see blue label Marc Faber item near the top) both have said very recently that the Chinese market could double from here even though it is in a bubble. There are many items on China at http://www.Barreloworld.com.