Macau casinos threatened by travel restrictions


Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS), Wynn Resorts Ltd. (NASDAQ: WYNN), and MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM) all have huge investments in the Las Vegas of the east, Macau. How large is illustrated by the drop in stock prices when, last Friday, a local China paper reported that Guangdong province was tightening travel restrictions to Macau. LVS finished down 1.56% and Wynn dropped 2.02%. MGM weathered the storm to finish even, possibly buoyed by Kirk Kerkorian's offer last week to buy two prime (non-Macau) properties.

Because the Macau region now surpasses Las Vegas in gambling revenue, punters have taken a distinctly bullish view of development, ignoring the Chinese government's capricious attitude about its people's freedom of movement.

I don't expect the Chinese government to strangle the growth of the Macau region, especially in the run-up to the 2008 Olympics. However, I think that we'll see more occasional setbacks in the stock of these companies, whenever something like this happens to remind investors of the greater risk they assume by piling their chips on red to win.

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