AOL Money & Finance

Serious Money: Whittling away at the Dow - T, BA, CAT, C, & KO: Part 2

More

In Part 1 of this series, I found two possible candidates for my Dow value picks, Alcoa Aluminum (NYSE: AA) and American International Group (NYSE: AIG). Here we review the next five DJIA stocks, searching for further value in light of the frequent new Dow highs. Lately, the Dow seems to be benefiting from the number of companies with growing international business, its higher than S&P average yields (2.3 vs 1.8 as a whole), and the safe haven nature of large caps in a precocious market.

AT&T (NYSE: T) -- Like most of the Dow stocks, T pays a high yield, currently 3.5%, and like the others it pays it consistently. This company is the aggregation of SBC, Pacific Bell, Nevada Bell, Bell-South, AT&T long distance and Cingular Wireless. It is the only one of today's five stocks that I have owned (separately as AT&T and SBC), but I do not own any shares of AT&T now and I do not care to. After all of the expansion done by mergers and acquisitions and only limited internal growth, I am not sure what the upside is.

How much pricing power will the new AT&T have, given ongoing competition in each segment of its business from other wireless carriers, cable television, and VoIP? Considering all of the recent M&A activity, it seems to have relatively low debt and huge cash flow. It also has a P/S, P/B, and P/CF in the lower range of most stocks. But a P/E over 20 is too high given that I do not see where future growth will come from. It seems to me for every competitive battle AT&T might win on one front they may lose an equal amount on another. All things considered, this stock seem fairly priced with limited near-term upside.

Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) is not a value play. Currently at an all-time high and carrying a P/E of 31 (TTM), it looks like a pricey tech stock instead of an industrial mainstay. It does have most of the qualities of a Titan -- limited competition, massive size ($77 billion capitalization), a dividend of 1.45% and a backlog of orders for its products. However, the only strong metric I can see is the low P/S of 1.24. Even its profit margins of 3.5% do not look appealing. My basic view is that this is a great company with all the good news priced into the stock, very little value to be wrung out, and above all no safety net if the economy changes.

Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) is also near a 52-week high but unlike Boeing it's worth deeper analysis and might have something to offer based on its much more reasonable metrics across the board. The two that jump off the page at me are the 42.8% return-on-equity, which is about three times its P/E of 14.35 (TTM). The ROE is way above average and the P/E is below average. This company is building value for its shareholders. The price-to-sales is only 1.23 which is one of my primary metrics in screening stocks. The only thing that is higher than I would like to see is the Long Term Debt-to-Equity (MRQ) of 4.0, but CAT can be afforded some slack in this area given its huge ROE, almost 13% ROIC and 8.52% profit margins. Every indication is that CAT knows very well what to do with its resources. This company has a strong brand and makes products that are instrumental to developing nations, much more so than aircraft is. CAT gets my vote.

Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) seems like a value play and much has been made of value investor Eddie Lampert buying a reported $800 million of stock but there are some caveats that give me pause. Before I get to these I should be clear that Citi often pops up on my stock screens. With a P/S of 1.87, a P/B of 2.25 and a very nice dividend yield of 3.92, there is plenty to like. You also get stability and the possibility that one day management will be able to unlock some growth out of this giant. Some say that Citi should split into two or three companies to do so, myself included. So where is the trouble? The first thing that is troubling is that the Return-on-invested-capital (ROIC) is a paltry 4.17%. Shareholders have a right to be screaming. Imagine Citi's predicament, and the glaring irony, that one of the largest investment companies in the world makes less on its invested capital than it would from a treasury note. Perhaps someone reading this can shed some light on my ignorance as to why this is so? This might immediately change if it split off the retail business from the investment banking and corporate sector portions of it's business; by way of comparison, Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) has a ROIC of over 8%.

While Citi has a lot of the characteristics of a value stock, so do most of the other large banks. Its greatest opportunity to me is in its break-up value, but current management does not see it that way. Should I simply gamble that Lambert and/or others will be able to work their magic? I don't think so, and here is why. Our 'buddy' Warren Buffett of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) only invests in companies with strong management, not in companies where he envisions management must change. Furthermore, when I invest I like to do the least amount of speculation. The value comes from seeing what others do not or seeing something before others do. In the case of Citigroup, that would be hard to do.

Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) is one of the greatest companies of all time and everyone living on the planet knows it -- from Warren Buffett, the largest shareholder, to the little kids in developing nations who quench their thirst with its products. But its stock is no bargain. It may be fairly valued near its 52-week high but I have no idea where it goes from here. Coke has P/E, P/S, P/B, and P/CF numbers that are all out of my range for a value stock and would never show up on my stock screens. However, in fairness, it has tremendous profit margins, over 21% which is huge for an old line company, and it's ROE, ROA and ROIC are equally stellar. It pays a nice dividend yield of 2.68% and it's cash-flow has always been strong, easily supporting its meager debt, plus R&D, acquisitions and the dividend. So what can I say, this perhaps is a growth story, not a value story, and it is a safe place to put some money. Perhaps it should go on the watch list to buy on the dips.

Conclusion: Most of the Dow stocks are near 52-week highs, which is the only way the index itself could be reaching new highs. Having reviewed 10 of the 30 stocks, I can now add Caterpillar to my search for value. AT&T and Citi require too much wishful thinking while Boeing and Coke look more like they might be topped out depending on the world economy, I just don't know. Another five companies will be reviewed in Part 3. The data I used was from the close on May 25, 2007.

Those of you who are new to BloggingStocks can check out my other stories and read Chasing Value or Serious Money to find more potential opportunities and verify my track record as well.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. Check out his other posts for BloggingStocks here.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+44.2910,291.26
NASDAQ+15.822,166.90
S&P 500+5.501,098.51

Last updated: November 11, 2009: 07:18 PM

BloggingStocks Exclusives

Hot Stocks

DailyFinance Headlines

Latest from BloggingBuyouts

TheFlyOnTheWall.com Headlines

BioHealth Investor Headlines

WalletPop Headlines

My Portfolios

Track your stocks here!

Find out why more people track their portfolios on AOL Money & Finance then anywhere else.

BloggingStocks Partners

More from AOL Money & Finance

WalletPop Headlines