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Couer d'Alene: Silver speculation

For a high-risk speculation in the mining sector, Curtis Hesler poses the hypothetical situation: "Suppose one just received a windfall of money and were willing to throw all caution to the winds; what looks good here?"

In his The Professional Timing Service, the usually conservative and disciplined advisor looks at his more speculative mining ideas for a current favorites for high-risk and high-reward potential.

He says, "In looking over our buy-and-hold list and our list of junior 'option alternative' recommendations, one stock that has been weak is Coeur d'Alene Mines" (NYSE: CDE).

He points out that the company is the largest U.S. silver producer, but that it had matured to the point that their reserves were decreasing and their future growth prospects were not bright.

Recently, though, he says, they announced a deal to buy out Bolnisi Gold and Palmarejo Silver and Gold Corporation. Says Hesler, "This is a big deal. It involves a stock swap and some cash, and the net effect will be to double the number of Coeur d'Alene shares outstanding."

However, he says, if the deal goes through, it will put CDE "back on a growth path." He notes that the prime asset in the acquisition is the Palmarejo Project in Mexico.

The advisor explains, "The Palmarejo Project is held out to be 'one of the highest quality primary silver projects in the world today,' and it will significantly increase Coeur d'Alene Mines' reserves and output."

Overall, he notes, Coeur d'Alene will move from being the largest U.S. silver producer to being one of the largest silver producers in the world.

One negative, he admits, is the firm's exposure in Venezuela. However, he adds, the Palmarejo Project acquisition reduces the significance of the Venezuelan risk.

He states, "In some respects, the deal does look a little like Jonah swallowing the whale, but CDE needs this acquisition. Although the respective boards have agreed, there will still be a stockholders' vote at each company. I don't envision a problem."

Meanwhile, the stock price remains under the advisor's buy price of $4.50. On the downside, he sees support at $3.50. He cautions, however, that investors should not be "overbalanced in any one stock or asset class." He concludes, "If you are of a mind to speculate, purchasing a few shares of Coeur d'Alene Mines looks appropriate."

For more stock picks from the leading financial newsletter advisors, visit Steven Halpern's free daily website, TheStockAdvisors.com.

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Last updated: October 15, 2008: 04:04 PM

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