In October 2000, Amey Stone -- then Associate Editor of BusinessWeek Online and now of BloggingStocks -- co-wrote an article about the KREMEY (Krispy Kreme Euphoria Yardstick) which compared the fate of $5,400, invested in 10 high profile dot-com stocks, with Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. (NYSE: KKD) which went public in April 5, 2000. Since then, the 10 stocks have tumbled 44%, while Krispy Kreme is down 23%.
Krispy Kreme is losing more money, according to The Wall Street Journal [subscription required]. The company makes great-tasting doughnuts. And since I was quoted in that October 2000 article I've learned more about how the human body metabolizes doughnuts. It initially releases a rush of insulin to digest all the sugar and carbohydrates in the doughnut. Following that sugar rush, people get listless and hungry.
This metabolic trajectory mirror's that of Krispy Kreme's stock chart. But since February 2005 when there were fears the company would file for bankruptcy, the stock has had a nice recovery. Meanwhile, of the 10 dot-com stocks on that April 5, 2000 list, three no longer exist as publicly-traded stocks -- AOL, eToys, and iVillage.com -- and the remaining seven are down an average of 44% -- as detailed below.
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Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN): up 14%
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America Online merged with Time Warner, Inc. (NYSE: TWX) on January 11, 2001.
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CNET Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ: CNET): down 79%
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eBay, Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY): up 48%
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eToys filed for bankruptcy on February 27, 2001
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E Trade Financial Corp. (NASDAQ: ETFC): no change
- iVillage.com was bought by General Electric Company's (NYSE: GE) NBC on March 6, 2006
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priceline.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: PCLN): down 87%
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TheStreet.com (NASDAQ: TSCM): up 67%
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Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO): down 65%
If I ascribe no current value to AOL, eToys, and iVillage.com -- Krispy Kreme has declined less in value since April 2000 than have the surviving dot-coms. And of the survivors, I like Amazon the most due to its surprising upside momentum. I'd avoid Krispy Kreme due to its weak financial condition. Plus I don't think its tasty product is too healthy.
Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates, a management consulting and venture capital firm. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He owns GE stock and has no financial interest in the other securities mentioned in this post.
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