After reviewing two thirds of the thirty Dow Jones Industrials, I am surprised to find as much opportunity as I have and as there appears to be. I did not start out expecting to find much value, if at all, in the Dow. Yet, out of the nineteen stocks I've covered in the first four parts, I've found six possibilities in total ... and I still have eleven stocks to go.
Here are the value plays so far: Alcoa Aluminum (NYSE: AA), American International Group (NYSE: AIG), Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT), Disney (Walt) Company (NYSE: DIS), and Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) and Home Depot (NYSE: HD). You can link to Part 1 of this series, Part 2, Part 3 or Part 4 for your own review and comments. Stocks 20 through 24 follow.
International Business Machines (NYSE: IBM) has been making some good moves lately and Wall Street has been reacting favorably. I have owned IBM shares several years ago and sold for a modest gain. The stock has been asleep for years and it looks fairly valued to me now. Very little of the data points I see stand out: IBM has an average P/E of 17.5, a lower than average yield of 1.5%. It does clear a good, not great, profit margin of 10.38%. The thing that looks most favorable about IBM, though, is its ROE, which is 30.25 (TTM) and far exceeds the P/E -- this has been a good indicator for me in the past. I would think most of its growth will be overseas but I do not see IBM moving at any faster rate than the index itself. There are many on Wall Street who disagree, pegging IBM as high as $175 per share in a few years based on its focus on higher margin software sales and service contracts, but I'd rather buy the index over the stock.
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) represents quality of management, quality of product, and financial strength and diversification that have made it one of the most widely held stocks and widely respected companies on the planet, bar none. I own it neatly tucked away in my Roth IRA and without further pontification would say you should too. Put it on your watch list and buy on dips. Now that I have gotten that out of the way and given credit where credit is due, does JNJ represent a deep value opportunity? Looking at the numbers and restricting my whittling process to what I would recommend outside the Roth IRA (where dividends are yours to keep) I take pause. Closing Friday at $63.41 it almost exactly at the mean line between it's 52-week high and low. While JNJ pays a nice dividend, it's average P/E of 18 along with an average P/S, P/B, and P/CF do not get me very excited.
Perhaps I am being silly, and if so feel free to comment. After all, buying an above average company for an average price might be just the thing to do. Warren Buffett did, and that is a very strong endorsement. However, I am looking for deep value so I will keep it on my watch list and be patient, waiting to buy it for a for a few bucks less. One other thing affecting my thinking is the size of JNJ now capitalized close to $184 billion. If I were in the board room, I might be selling off some assets and tightening up the product line.
JP Morgan Chase & Company (NYSE: JPM) has clawed its way back from a low share price around $16 in late 2001 to its current value of $51.90, almost back to its 2000 high. What's to like now? How about the 2.93% yield or the P/S of 1.86 and the P/B of 1.53, to go with a 14.55% profit margin. What's not to like? The meager ROIC of 4.17 and a P/E and ROE that are about in line at 12. If I were comparing JPM with Citigroup last year, I think I would have favored JPM, but looking at the two today, big 'C' pays a 35% higher yield of 3.96% and has a 35% higher ROE as well. That said, I think the big banks are bloated and it would seem they are more interested in getting even bigger rather than trimming the fat to become more agile in a global market. So if I passed on Citi, I think I must pass on JPM as well.
McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) review will be short and sweet. The management has done a fabulous job maneuvering MCD to an all-time high and an annual appreciation over the last 12 months near 65%. Hard to top that, and that is the problem. The metrics say, average P/E, P/S, P/B, and P/CF. The ROE, while nice at about 19, hovers at the level of the P/E. I would like to see a higher ROE or a lower P/E. My favorite MCD figures are the 16%+ profit and the low debt, but as far as value goes, I don't see it here.
Merck (NYSE: MRK) is a big hold in my book, and I do hold it in several portfolios, however I acquired the shares between $28 and $32.50 and have not been buying any since. This is a great company that scared off investors under the cloud of Vioxx litigation and product pipeline concerns. Having won the majority of its cases and appeals, the rest, as I expected originally, will be smaller payouts (if it has to make any) and later than the bearish analysts proclaimed. In addition, Merck was holding almost $9 billion in cash and short term investments at the end of 2006 and maintains negligible long-term debt. Basically, this is a great company with great long term prospects but you will have to pay up to own it because all of its metrics are at the high end of all DJIA stocks.
Conclusion: This is the fifth of my reports and the first one where I find I cannot add any of the stocks to my list of value candidates. There is no doubt these are quality companies with some strong possibilities and there may be some upside here, but nothing stands out to me out as exceeding the possibilities of the index as a whole. Of the five, Johnson and Johnson is the one I would like to own more of, but I think even the least experienced investors among us are probably thinking the same thing and that is why we may not see a better time to buy. So for now, I wait.
The data I used was from the close on June 1, 2007.
Those of you who are new to BloggingStocks can check out my other stories and read Chasing Value or Serious Money to find more potential opportunities and verify my track record as well.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. Check out his other posts for BloggingStocks here.










