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Financial implications of Tony Soprano's final fate

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It's been a heck of a run. Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) and its spin-off Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC) have reaped many financial and publicity-related benefits with the HBO hit series The Sopranos. But as any mobster would tell you, all good things inevitably get whacked. Or do they?

Is HBO really going to kill off Tony Soprano? That's the question on everyone's lips, with only about 100 hours to go before the season's much-hyped finale. But apart from the character, do the companies behind the man want to kill off potential future revenue? There is plenty to be made at the end of the series, of course, including key DVD and boxed set sales. But the really big payoff remains: Tony Soprano. The public still doesn't know if he lives or dies. The same goes for the rest of his crew and his rivals, but Tony is the key since without him any derivatives would be called The Goombas.

So this might not be the end after all for Tony. Since this was a huge driver for Time's HBO unit, it is hard to believe HBO won't try to milk it with future offshoots or at least some cameo shows.

Regardless of who lives and dies in the finale of the mega-hit series, the chances of an offshoot series called The Leotardos" has a name set for failure. Most likely -- given the "follow the money" theory -- if Tony Soprano dies, Time Warner will decide that any future continuation of the series just doesn't merit the costs.


If you want to read some of the online predictions, you can look to at least one of the overseas gambling services called Bodog. (Of course, if you are a U.S. citizen your legislators have determined that you shouldn't be allowed gamble online, so you can only legally look at this for "entertainment value" and cannot legally participate.) Surprisingly, Tradesports.com did not have a futures exchange betting on Tony Soprano's fate.

Hundreds of web sites are devoted to discussing and predicting the ending. Predictions are equally mixed between who lives and who dies. This final season hasn't been as full of as much dark humor or happy gooba moments as past seasons. In fact, Tony himself has been spiraling downward at the speed of a "jumper," and his crew has dwindled down so low in morale and numbers that the dark tone seems auspicious. But it's hard to imagine "truly" killing off a major franchise, unless it is deemed that it just makes financial sense. Will this really be the LAST last of The Sopranos?

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.
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Last updated: July 06, 2009: 04:45 AM

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