Hypothesis: Our current computing environment sucks. We buy our own incomprehensively complex and undependable hardware, install a grab-bag of software that conflicts and/or craps out, and spend hours figuring out how to transfer and backup our work. Don't despair though, a better world is just around the corner. That world could be bad news for companies such as Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Dell (NASDAQ: DELL), but great news for the likes of Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) and AT&T (NYSE: T).
What am I talking about? I'm referring to a world in which we would only need to buy a dumb terminal and subscribe to the necessary computing services. The company we choose -- perhaps AT&T or Comcast (NYSE: CMCSA) -- would provide us with broadband wireless connectivity to its servers. From those servers, we could run any software we want, work with others on group projects and store our files remotely. No more data lost to hard drive crashes, no more struggling through software upgrades, no more lugging seven-pound laptops through airports, no more afternoons lost to recalcitrant home networks. No more need for a separate computer, xBox, Tivo, and cable box, either.
Three advances in computing are converging to make this possible.
Advances in blade technology will allow us to use very simple devices (think keyboard and screen) to access servers up to thousands of miles away and work as quickly as our current PC. Rather than millions of separate PCs working at 1% capacity, networked computing will allow much more efficient (i.e. economical) computing, with the added advantage of scalability. Imagine your laptop light as a feather and selling for well under $100.
Connecting these dumb terminals to the computing environment will come via a seamless broadband wireless network. With the FCC auctioning off the frequencies in the UHF and VHF bands that open up as we convert television to digital technology, these networks will become much more viable.
The third component is software and Google's evolving suite of programs for online common tasks such as word processing is a good example of products that could run on remote servers. No more buying a new copy of Office every three years, or buying Acrobat just to use for one project.
There are certainly trade-offs in this scenario, mostly ones of security. However, I believe that such a system is inevitable, and soon. It will offer a hugely more customer-friendly experience, vastly increased availability of products and services, and a dramatically lower cost of entry. Online computing represents the next tremendous business opportunity for companies such as Comcast and Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC), AT&T and Verizon (NYSE: VZ) that can leverage their networking backbones into this new integrated product.
Such a system would also go a great way toward erasing the cost barrier that sustains the digital divide.
I'm ready for the future. I can't wait to put behind me forever all pc/printer conflicts, Norton upgrades, and blue screens of death.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
6-07-2007 @ 12:16PM
Steve said...
I totally agree about Microsoft. They've shown no ability but to chase markets that have already been pioneered and won by someone else (AOL IM, MapQuest, Google, etc).
But guess who's going to be selling the servers which power those tablets? Or the data warehouses, storage systems, network switches that future applications so desperately need? Who's going to be leasing all those tablets to the government and corporations?
Dell's story isn't over yet. They haven't even come close to saturating the server/storage market. Their home products (and their marketing / selling of) are crummy for sure, but I don't think that they've thrown in the towel either. It remains to be seen who is going to lead the charge their, whether it be Michael or one of his new hires.
6-07-2007 @ 12:34PM
natef said...
No, this scenrio will not pan out as you have described it. Yes, I believe there will be a market for dumb-terminal devices that connect up to the cloud for services.
But, our bandwidth capabilities (especially wireless) are NOWHERE NEAR sufficient to stream a rich experience. HD Video, gaming, 3D modeling, and a whole slew of other applications that would far exceed the bandwidth capabilities of the near future.
So what about down the line when bandwidth increases? Well, I can guarantee you that what people do with their computers is going to change as more bandwidth and computing power becomes available. In other words, bandwidth capabilities will probably NEVER exceed computing and media capabilities (they are both growing, and bandwidth is growing much much slower). So the demand for ever more powerful computers should give Dell a continuous supply of hungry consumers (even if they ARE using services in the cloud).
Finally, while I agree that software services will begin to play a much more important role (as they have already begun to do), Microsoft is not going to stand still. They have already begun a huge Live Anywhere initiative to support software as a service from your PC, tablet, mobile phone etc. The real killer apps of the future are going to be software AND services, to take advantage of the best of both worlds.
In short, your analysis is very short cited and to be honest just plain wrong.
6-07-2007 @ 2:25PM
Heart_Man_2000 said...
Has anyone even begun to consider the implications that Sarbanes-Oxley or HIPPA regulations would have on such a system? I don't think many major corporations, research labs and health care organizations are going to want surrender total control of files and data to an outside entity.
6-09-2007 @ 7:00PM
Steve said...
I currently track the Public Server Based Vendors listed below. many of these vendors do or will offer off line options as well web based solutions.
Watch out for the recently announced alliance between Salesforce.com and Google. Google will have access to superior technology to elevate Google Apps for Your Domain to the next level.
* Atlantis Computing
* Dekoh
* Desktop On Demand
* Desktop Two
* DoxBoard
* eDesk Online
* ESuite
* eyeOS
* Fenestela
* G.ho.st
* Glide
* Google Apps for Your Domain
* Goowy
* GravityZoo
* Ironbox
* Netvibes
* Oos
* Orca Desktop
* Protopage
* Salesforce.com
* ThinkFree
* Virtual-OS
* WebtopOS
* Xcerion
* XinDesk
* YouOS
* Zimbra
* Zoho
Links to these can be found on my blog www.sbclist.info.