Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) CEO Richard Parsons shouldn't turn HBO into a premium movie channel following Sunday's finale of The Sopranos as some on Wall Street had suggested.
There are just too many ways for people to watch uncut and unedited movies these days, ranging from video-on-demand to movie rentals to other cable channels. It's far too late for HBO to turn the clock back to the 1980s and 1990s when viewers were always able to count on one of the "Porky's" movies showing up on its broadcast schedule. The public expects more from HBO.
To be sure, The Sopranos will pay dividends for Time Warner for years to come from DVD sales, video-on-demand and possibly a movie or movies. An Associated Press story mentions that reruns of the crime drama boosted viewing on A&E. But die-hard fans of the drama won't stand for a cleaned-up version of the show forever. The novelty will wear off just as it has for Law & Order.
HBO needs to find a new hit to replace The Sopranos and needs it soon. Entourage is still great though I think it's running out of gas creatively and Real Time with Bill Maher continues to be entertaining. I saw the preview for the new drama John from Cincinnati on HBO.com and don't know quite what to make of it.
None of these programs, however, will be able to fill the hole left by The Sopranos, which was the main reason why many people subscribed to HBO. For consumers, there is a bright side because I suspect that cable companies will be offering huge discounts to keep HBO subscribers from bolting. That is only going to be a stopgap measure at best.
Moreover, rival Showtime, which toiled for years in HBO's shadow, has recently gotten much better. The channel is home to Weeds, one of the best shows on television. David Duchovny's new program Californication also looks interesting. Given a choice, I bet many viewers would keep the Viacom Inc. (NYSE: VIA) pay channel over HBO.
HBO is facing these challenges without Chris Albrecht, the executive who helped make the network into the juggernaut it is today. Albrecht, who was responsible for hits including Sex and the City, was ousted last month following an arrest for domestic violence. The impact of his departure won't be noticeable on the programming for a while. Investors, however, may notice it much sooner on the company's balance sheet.
Now that the company's cable business is separated, Time Warner will count on its other businesses for profit growth even more than it did before. The company's Networks business, which also includes the Turner cable channels such as CNN, had revenue of $2.4 billion in the first quarter, little changed from a year earlier. Operating income rose 6% to $860 million, helped in part by increased subscribers at HBO.
Even though the challenges are tough, I am convinced HBO is up to them. The channel consistently attracts top-flight creative people and one of them will come up the next mega hit, though it may not happen immediately. The question is whether investors who are already not thrilled with Time Warner will be patient enough.
Otherwise, some big shot executives at the media conglomerate may get whacked.










