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Harry Potter, a consumer hit ... but a loser for book stores?

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If Reuters is accurate, the seventh and final Harry Potter novel, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, won't just be a consumer hit, but will also hit book-sellers in the pocketbook. Would you have ever believed it if you read that perhaps the biggest book event of 2007 is going to be a money loser for those selling it? I wouldn't have believed it; it sounds ludicrous. Using a key seller as a loss leader sounds a bit like selling plasma and LCD TVs at a loss at convenience stores to make money off smokes and bubble gum.

This makes me wonder why book stores don't just sell the book at a profit and take the risk that the other secondary and tertiary shopping dollars spent on the same visit don't go too far away. Why would a supermarket be able to sell the novel for cheaper than a distributor? That's the claim, and it is pretty shocking that Scholastic Corp. (NASDAQ: SCHL) would create a pricing tier in which book stores lose money. It's almost shocking the company also didn't put pricing demands or restrictions on sales of the hit book for the first 60 days. The demand for Harry Potter is nearly inelastic, at least around the launch date, or not as sensitive to price as the discounters would think.


Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) has already had more than 1 million pre-orders since May 8 for the 7th and final novel in the mega-hit Harry Potter series. The full retail list price is $34.99, but Barnes & Noble (NYSE: BKS) and Borders (NYSE: BGP) are advertising 40% off. Amazon.com is selling Deathly Hallows for a low $17.99.

I already noted that it is quite clear Scholastic is going to make a pretty penny off this final installment. Otherwise it wouldn't be in an accelerated $200 million share buyback plan.

I still do not believe that this is the end of the road for Harry Potter, even if J.K. Rowling wants to kill the character off. We are dealing with magicians and wizardry, and the franchise is so valuable that someone is going to demand that he gets brought back to life. Imagine all the side hop-off stories that could be sold merely as short stories based even on Harry's friends and foes.

Follow the money, there will be more. Book stores, however, aren't going to be too happy about that if they plan to lose money on all of them.

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.
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Last updated: July 05, 2009: 02:37 PM

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