U.S. government bonds have plunged in recent weeks, dragged down by worries over inflation, rising interest rates overseas, an apparent buyer's strike by some foreign central banks, and hedging by traders in other fixed-income markets.
However, a number of technical indicators suggest the selling may be overdone, at least in the short-term.
Using the iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (AMEX: TLT) as a proxy, the accompanying chart indicates that bond prices are near levels that have provided solid support over the past five years.
Volume has also spiked, suggesting that the most recent leg down represents a "selling climax" of some sort.
Finally, momentum, in the guise of 14-day RSI, a popular technical indicator, is at its lowest reading since the exchange-traded fund was first listed, signaling that that the market has likely gone too far, too fast.
While there are various signs that the long bull market in bonds could be over and that yields are now in the early stages of a secular uptrend, the immediate technical evidence nonetheless suggests that bond prices -- and the Treasury Bond ETF -- are poised for a decent bounce.
Michael Panzner is a 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets and the author of Financial Armageddon: Protecting Your Future from Four Impending Catastrophes and The New Laws of the Stock Market Jungle: An Insider's Guide to Successful Investing in a Changing World.
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