Should investors fear a Democratic president?


Investors who worry about tax increases, socialized medicine and Hillary Clinton picking out fabric swatches, should be petrified by the recent polling data showing how low President Bush's popularity has sunk.

A recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll showed that by a margin of 52% to 31%, Americans want the Democrats to win the presidency next year. Politico.com is reporting that "Republicans across the country are warning that increasing public discontent toward President Bush, the Iraq war and the GOP brand in general threatens to send the party's 2008 campaign planning into a tailspin."

Even though the economy is fairly strong and the stock market continues to set record after record, Wall Street seems out of step with Main Street. People are fed up with high gas prices, the war in Iraq and the bursting of the real estate bubble.

They also don't like corporate fat cats either, so Blackstone Group LP CEO Steve Schwarzman, who stands to earn as much as $677 million from the private equity firm's upcoming IPO, might want to watch how he spends his money before the election. For instance, he should avoid lighting cigars with $100 bills.

Members of Congress are already grousing about the favorable tax treatment that hedge funds and private equity companies enjoy, which was underscored by the Blackstone IPO. There will be more and more complaining about private equity and hedge funds over the next few months.

In fact, there will be such noise about issues of interest to investors ranging from taxes to free trade that it will be difficult to figure out what to believe.

About the only thing that's for certain is that big changes are coming.


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