Last week, Aluminum Company of China (NYSE: ACH) had a spectacular time, closing Friday at $42.51. I have been banging this drum all year long to friends, family, our readers and even my broker. I hope some of you made some money. On Friday one of my brokers (and friends) that did one of the transactions at $22.00 called to pat me on the back. He remembered the conversation we had where I exclaimed that ACH was so cheap it seemed impossible. The day I bought it I kept asking, what I'm not seeing, why is this stock which seems like a screaming buy being passed over by the market?
There are many reasons I am laughing about this stock. One is that I wrote Chasing Value: Aluminum Co. of China driving me nuts on May 31, 2007 when Chalco was $32.93, stating that it still looked cheap. I wanted to buy more, but it was hard to do when I was already passed a 50% return in a few months. Well, now it's up another 30%+ and it still looks cheap and I remain cautiously optimistic. (The original story was Chasing Value: Aluminum Corporation of China ADS, which I still think is worth a read today.)
Another reason I am laughing is because the financial powerhouse Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS) upgraded ACH from neutral to buy months later, and Chalco jumped to a new high after Goldman's upgrade. That, after spending how much money on research? They should just read my Chasing Value column (link below) -- they will find loads of bargains.
Still funnier are the calls I received to start a hedge fund -- not my bag folks (private equity fund, maybe). Anyone following my lead this year would be laughing with glee also, but that will be another post as I review the whole slate of picks.
Lastly I am laughing because Hillary Kramer posted Aluminum Corp. of China: Give it a metal! where she rightly takes credit for recommending Chalco late last year. Good call HK, but now she is hedging her bets. Hillary states that the stock has passed her wildest expectations, and goes on to say," If you still have this stock, or if you buy it now, I'd also keep a close eye on this price, and get ready to get out at the right time."
Well, it has not passed my expectations and NO! NO! NO! -- I say do not try to time the market!
How does she know when to buy at a certain dollar amount but waffle when to sell? Why does she say keep your eye on it because it has more room to run but then say you may want to bail? You can't have it both ways! You must also take into consideration the tax consequences of a short term sale and anyone who does not consider taxes (speak to a qualified professional) is either a novice or a tax dodger.
Lastly, no matter what price you pay now I believe this stock will have a 50 year run. You read that right folks, 50 years. China's auto, aircraft, and construction industry growth assure that, in my opinion. If I am wrong by a decade that is still a lot of growth and I do not see a foreign company overtaking ACH's market leadership in my lifetime. This is one of those companies I expect my "pal" Warren is watching very closely and if he announced that he had acquired a stake in the company, it would not surprise me in the least. This is exactly the type of investment that Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) would make.
I will be buying more on dips and unless you see long term demand for aluminum disappearing, you should be too.
Those of you who are new to BloggingStocks can check out my other stories and read Chasing Value or Serious Money to find potential opportunities and verify my track record as well.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. Check out his other posts for BloggingStocks here.










