Are fall labor talks a 'Waterloo' for UAW

The Wall Street Journal writes [subscription required] that the fall labor talks between the Big Three and the UAW may be a "Waterloo" for the big union. The domestic car companies will try to get $10 billion in concessions to become more competitive with Japanese rivals.The union's strategy so far is to give the companies small financial relief in certain cases, but not to collapse by buckling to the pressure of releasing the troubled firms from pension and health benefit obligations.

While the automobile companies press for lower labor costs, they do so in an environment where their best leverage may be behind them a year and a half ago. There have been frequent press reports that General Motors (NYSE: GM) and Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) might not make it. Since then, however, GM has cut $9 billion a year in costs and its North American operations have made major strides toward being profitable. Ford has raised $23 billion to cover profit short-falls as it tries to create a model line-up that will be more attractive to consumers. Chrysler, too, will have an owner with deep pockets once hedge fund Cerberus takes over.

To some degree, the UAW can make the argument that it is not at fault for the lack of sales by the U.S. car companies. The union does not design the vehicles and it does not market them.

Painted into a corner, the UAW may decide to strike instead of being destroyed by huge givebacks. Better to have one last stand than surrender without a fight.

Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.

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