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No surprise here ... May another tough month for housing starts

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It really shouldn't come as too big of a surprise, but today's release of housing starts for May show another tough month. The subprime mortgage woes continue to weigh on lenders, who have been seriously cutting back on loan approvals for new home buyers, and who can really blame them? As Jonathan Berr wrote last week, foreclosures have been rising -- with May seeing a jump of 90% -- and show no signs of slowing.

So, given the current mortgage situation, it was not a shocker to see another month of weak home starts. Last month saw a 2.1 percent drop in construction of new homes and apartments. This is what analysts had been expecting to see, and represented the weakest month since January. We now see construction levels a pretty amazing 24.2 percent below this time last year.

If you are crossing your fingers and hoping to see construction numbers rise over the next couple of months, I wouldn't. Things are pointing to even worse numbers moving forward. Builder sentiment is now running at the lowest rate it has been at during the past 16 years. In May the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market index was sitting at 30, and analysts were expecting to see that level hold this month, but that was not to be. After a 2 point drop down to 28 we are at a point where we haven't been since way back in February of 1991 when the index dipped down to a measly 27.

While the picture is not looking good, once again, this is nothing new or shocking. We have known for a while that the market was weak and foreclosures were on the rise, and lower construction is just the natural reaction to what is going on in the marketplace. As more people find themselves struggling to keep up with their mortgages, more and more houses are going to hit the market, and at lower prices than we have seen in recent years.


Once again, as Jonathan Berr pointed out yesterday, there is somewhere close to $2 trillion worth of adjustable rate mortgages that are due to reset at higher interest rates. If you think things are bad now, just wait until we see how much of that $2 trillion goes into default! I hate to say it, but as bad as things have been I think we have yet to even scratch the surface of what lies ahead.

On the bright side... there are some people who are loving the current situation, namely the renters out there who are licking their chops waiting on their dream house to come down to their price level. I say wait a little while longer and you never know, that house you only dreamed about a couple years ago may be looking pretty affordable by the end of the year.

I am curious to hear from our readers who are in the market, either buying or selling property. What are you seeing in your area? How have inventories and property values been moving in your location?

Michael Fowlkes has worked as a stock trader for seven years and spent the last two years working as an analyst for the online investment advisory service Investor'sObserver.
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Last updated: November 27, 2009: 03:13 AM

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