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Crocs: Is it fairly valued?

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Back on February 21, I began a series of articles on Crocs Inc. (NASDAQ: CROX). I have been recommending the stock to the members of the Insiders Insights club of my website since late 2006, when the stock was trading at $40 -- that's before the 2-for-1 split. Those shares are currently at almost $94. On a split basis the stock is above $46. Basically, my members have more than doubled their money in the past six months. Great investment, good timing. What to do now with this controversial company? Where can it go from here?

I have written that Crocs is not a fad, Crocs is an emerging, global phenomenon, and that Crocs even has the opportunity to become the next Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE). The controversy surrounding Crocs involves the love-it or hate-it relationship with its shoes. People fall very heavily into one camp or another -- there's very little neutrality on this subject!

What makes Crocs a full-blown phenomenon is its extraordinary distribution model. 11,500 domestic-retail, distribution outlets and 12,500 international distribution outlets. Crocs distributes through third-party vendors, therefore not needing its own bricks-and-mortar set-up. It's brilliant as Crocs generates gross margins in the 60%+ range and its "real estate" is someone else's. With this model, Crocs generates operating profit margins in the 25-27% range. This is what appeals to institutional investors! I cannot emphasize this point enough. Young, start-up companies hope -- hope -- to have operating margins in the mid-20's% upon maturity, but to have these margins during the build-up stage is just remarkable. Besides its great sequential quarterly revenue growth, the operating margins "is the story"!

Crocs has aligned itself with the NFL and the NHL, as well as over 100 universities. They have expanded their product line to include a lot of accessories and other types of footwear. They are not resting on its laurels. This company is developing its line of products to be fresh, innovative, and appealing (okay, appealing to some people -- not all!).

So what to do with the stock? The easy money has been already made, no question. The shares have doubled in just the past six months, and I do not believe they will double from here in the next six months -- or even 12 months. I estimate Crocs will earn $1.55 per share this year and $2.00-$2.10 per share in 2008. The growth rate is 35% and sustainable for at least another three to five more years. Growth managers will assign one price/earnings point for each percentage point of growth. Coupled with the attractive operating margins, Crocs could comfortably sell at 30 or 35 times P/E based on 2008's $2.00+ earnings. Basically, the stock could easily go to $60-70. From its $46 closing price on Friday, the stock still has room for 30%+ appreciation -- not bad. The stock is still a buy, but remember that the easy money has been made.

Georges Yared is the CIO of Yared Investment Research.

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Last updated: November 25, 2009: 05:08 AM

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